The House of Representatives will vote this week to beef up border security and keep the government open, sparking a shutdown showdown with an obstinate Senate desiring the status quo at the southern border.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) announced his plan Tuesday night after the House broke a procedural logjam to begin bringing individual appropriations bills to the floor. The border security-infused continuing resolution (CR) would keep the government operating, likely for 45 days, while Congress continues considering longer-term bills.
The Senate, where Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have operated in lockstep, is taking a different route, unveiling its own plan Tuesday to continue current spending levels through mid-November. The Senate plan notably does not address the escalating border crisis, not even meager aid the White House previously requested, while providing billions more to Ukraine.
House Republicans are criticizing the Senate for the incongruity, with McCarthy saying if Democrats want to “focus on Ukraine and not focus on the southern border, I think their priorities are backwards.”
McCarthy has pivoted in recent days from messaging on the broader spending battle to emphasizing the need to address the border, following the lead of some House conservatives. He is betting that messaging on an issue of escalating importance not only to Republicans but also to independents and even Democrats will reduce the Senate’s leverage and give him room to produce a CR his conference will push to passage.
There are signs the strategy might have legs. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), a reliable ally of McConnell, argued the Senate CR “contains several priorities requested by Democrats but zero priorities requested by Republicans: border security funding being first and foremost to address the crisis at our Southern border that President Biden created.”
McConnell, perhaps Ukraine’s greatest champion in Congress, who also has a long history of supporting open migration, remains undeterred. He spoke from the Senate floor Wednesday in favor of maintaining the status quo, insisting “we can take the standard approach and fund the government for six weeks at the current rate of operations, or we can shut the government down in exchange for zero meaningful progress on policy.”
McCarthy must still twist arms within his conference to pass his CR. Reframing it as a border security bill is a shrewd move that might put pressure on some Republicans otherwise unwilling to vote for a CR.
Regardless, a shutdown, at least on paper, is perhaps inevitable. Procedural hurdles in the Senate most likely will prevent a CR vote until Sunday, the day after government funding runs dry.
Despite the breathlessness from the White House and the mainstream media, the situation is not as dire as some fear. The effects of a shutdown would not begin to be seen until Monday when federal employees are set to return to work. Federal employees have received full back pay after recent shutdowns. A short shutdown would have few significant ramifications.
Challenges remain for securing a CR, particularly for McCarthy, who faces numerous difficult and evolving dynamics and a possible vote to take away his speaker’s gavel. Regardless, as the unmitigated calamity at the southern border continues dominating headlines, McCarthy’s reframing of the spending issue around border security may be a boon to his cause and maybe even save his speakership.
Follow Bradley Jaye on Twitter at @BradleyAJaye.
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