Former President Donald Trump now leads His Fraudulency Joe Biden in the RealClearPolitics poll that averages all the most recent national polls.
Currently, the former president enjoys 44.8 support to Joe Biden’s 44.4 percent.
This is notable for one important reason… Not once during the 2020 presidential election cycle did Trump lead Biden nationally. Not for a single day. But in the 2024 election cycle, Trump has consistently led or been nipping at Biden’s heels since early April.
So far this year, Biden’s biggest lead over Trump in this poll of polls has been only two points—which lasted a very short time. Trump has led Biden by as much as 2.5 points.
Moreover, during the 2020 cycle, Biden never dipped below a four-point lead over his GOP rival. In fact, there were times he trounced Trump by double digits. Then, on Election Day 2020, Biden led Trump by a national average of 7.2 points and allegedly beat Trump by 4.5 points.
Back in 2020, in the dozens and dozens of national polls done between February and Election Day, Trump led Biden in exactly one poll, and only by a single point.
In this 2024 cycle, Trump has topped Biden in five of the last 12 national polls.
This clear change of fortune removes one of the primary arguments against Trump running for reelection—that he can’t win. Currently, the establishment GOP’s great hope is Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). But DeSantis is losing to Biden by a national average of 3.8 points. In the last 12 national polls, DeSantis has not topped Biden even once. The Florida governor’s best showing was a single poll that showed him tied with Slow Joe.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during a press conference, Thursday, Sept. 22, 2022, in Miami. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)
There is just no question that, at least for now, Trump is in a much better position than DeSantis to beat Biden. Additionally, Trump is in a much better position than he was himself in 2020 to beat Biden.
Also, and this is equally important, Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by 2.1 points in 2016 and still won the presidency.
US Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton makes a concession speech after being defeated by Republican President-elect Donald Trump, as former President Bill Clinton looks on in New York on November 9, 2016 (JEWEL SAMAD/AFP via Getty Images).
Finally, while Trump allegedly lost to Biden in 2020, do not forget this…. the former president won 74.2 million votes in 2020. That’s seven million more than the previous record, Barry Obama’s 65.9 million votes in 2012. That’s 13.6 million more than Mitt Romey’s 60.9 million in 2012. That’s 14 million more than John McCain’s 59.9 million in 2008.
US President Donald Trump and former President Barack Obama talk on the East steps of the US Capitol after inauguration ceremonies on January 20, 2017, in Washington, DC. (Photo credit should ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)
Name a single Republican who could win seven million more votes than Barry Obama like Trump did.
What’s changed regarding a rematch with Biden is obvious. On top of being too frail to serve lunch, much less as president, everything is worse under Biden—foreign policy, energy costs, child mutilation, destruction of women’s sports, inflation, interest rates, the wide-open border, crime… I’m missing a few, but you get the point.
Hey, but at least there are no mean tweets.
John Nolte’s best-selling debut novel Borrowed Time (Bombardier Books – Sept. 26) is available for pre-order, including Kindle and Audible.