Former President Donald Trump is leading Gov. Ron DeSantis in Florida in the latest Victory Insights survey, which shows a 25-point swing from DeSantis to Trump head-to-head since November.
In a crowded field in the Sunshine State, Trump takes an eight-point lead over DeSantis, leading 42.9 percent to 34.8 percent.
No other potential candidate comes close, as anti-woke businessman Vivek Ramaswamy comes in third place with 3.5 percent support. Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley came in fourth place with 3.2 percent support, followed by former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) — who announced his presidential bid in April — with 1.4 percent. In the potentially crowded field, 13.9 percent remain undecided:
Trump’s lead expands even greater when DeSantis is taken out of the scenario, leading 65.9 percent to Haley’s 7.8 percent. In that scenario, 22.4 percent remain undecided.
The survey also put Trump and DeSantis head-to-head and found Trump still leading, 46.6 percent to the governor’s 31.8 percent. Notably, this reflects a significant swing in favor of Trump since the survey’s findings in November, when DeSantis led 47.4 percent to Trump’s 36.5 percent.
According to the survey:
In November 2022, our polling showed DeSantis with a 10.9-point lead over Trump in the Sunshine State. Five months later, Trump has retaken the lead in astounding fashion, beating DeSantis by 14.8 points. The number of undecided voters has also inched upward, increasing by 5.5% over the past five months.
More specifically, the number of undecideds has jumped from 16.1 percent to 21.6 percent since November. Trump went from 36.5 percent support to 46.6 percent support, and DeSantis fell from 47.4 percent support to 31.8 percent in that same timeframe.
The survey also found DeSantis having the edge when it comes to likability. The survey asked respondents to rank candidates on a 1-5 scale, with five being very positive. In that scenario, DeSantis leads with a rating of 3.85, followed by Trump with 3.69. While the survey said it is generally good news for the governor, it adds that his camp “should be worried by the fact that the Florida Governor can be more ‘popular’ than Trump in every measure, yet still register far behind him in the polls”:
It reflects a core truth that will heavily influence this race: Donald Trump has a base of diehard supporters who will vote for him no matter what. Even if these voters give both Trump and DeSantis a “5 out of 5” rating, they’ll still vote for Trump every single time. Trump’s strength is not in his broad appeal, but rather in the tight grip he has on a sizeable portion of the electorate.
The survey was taken April 6-8, 2023, among 1,000 likely Republican presidential primary voters and has a +/- 3.1 percent margin of error. The results are significant for Trump, as recent Florida-centric surveys show DeSantis taking a slight edge in the Sunshine State. The latest Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc., survey, for example, shows DeSantis leading Trump with support from less than half of respondents — 44 percent to 39 percent.
Trump, posting results of the Victory Insights poll, wrote, “I guess Ron DeSantis is not quite as popular in Florida as people thought. I assume, among other things, that they don’t want their Social Security and MediCare cut!”
“Ron DeSantis is a young man who is not doing well against me in the polls, to put it mildly. I believe that if he decides to run for President, which will only hurt and somewhat divide the Republican Party, he will lose the cherished and massive MAGA vote, and never be able to successfully run for office again,” Trump wrote earlier in the day, asserting it would be a “different story” if he remained governor for now.
While it is true that Trump is dominating DeSantis in national polls and several state polls, it is not all bad news for the potential presidential candidate, as recent Cygnal surveys showed DeSantis performing better against President Biden in both Iowa and North Carolina, despite the former president’s lead in Iowa:
DeSantis has yet to make a presidential announcement, but some members of the Florida congressional delegation have already expressed support for Trump — including Reps. Byron Donalds (R-FL) and Cory Mills (R-FL).
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