Poll: Post-Indictment Donald Trump Surges Past Joe Biden in Hypothetical 2024 Match-Up

Former President Donald Trump took the lead over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical general election match-up on the heels of his indictment this week, according to a poll.

The YouGov poll, conducted for the Economist from Saturday through Trump’s arrest on Tuesday, shows 44 percent of registered voters would back the 45th president in a rematch of the 2020 election.

He sits two points ahead of Biden, who registers at 42 percent. Fourteen percent of respondents are undecided.

Trump enjoys a net-four-point swing his way compared to another YouGov poll taken for Yahoo! News on March 30 – which saw Trump’s indictment in the evening – and the following day. That poll showed Biden leading Trump by a margin of 45 percent to 43 percent among registered voters.

In the current poll, Trump leads Biden 39 percent to 38 percent with U.S. adult women. He also holds an advantage with independents as 35 percent of the demographic support him and 24 percent back Biden. Another 7 percent are still undecided, and 24 percent would not vote.

When asked to choose who they thought would win the presidency in a hypothetical general election dispute their own preferences, 40 percent of adults predicted Trump would win while 40 percent forecasted a Biden reelection.

Among registered voters, 44 percent predicted a victory for Biden versus 42 percent who think Trump will secure a second term. A plurality of 36 percent of independents say they think Trump would win, versus 29 percent who believe Biden would be victorious.

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Trump’s indictment has proven to be a politically divisive issue, according to the poll. Of registered voters, 46 percent believe it is a result of a “Legitimate investigation” from the Manhattan District Attorney’s office, while 45 percent say the investigation was actually a “Witch hunt.”

The overwhelming majority of Republicans, 76 percent, labeled the investigation a “Witch hunt,” versus 78 percent of Democrats who believe the investigation was “Legitimate.”

Independents yielded more of a split as 39 percent think a “Legitimate investigation” preceded the indictment, while 35 percent say a “Witch hunt” did. Another 26 percent were unsure.

YouGov sampled 1,500 U.S. adults, including 1319 registered voters, from April 1-4. The weighted margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percent, and the margin of error among registered voters is plus or minus 3 percent.