Poll: Trump Leads Biden, DeSantis Trails in Hypothetical Head-to-Head Matchup

Former President Donald Trump is edging out President Biden in a head-to-head matchup, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails, this week’s Morning Consult survey found.

The survey — showing Trump with majority support in the potentially crowded field and his closest potential challenger, DeSantis, trailing by 25 percentage points — also pitted the top two Republicans against the president.

When asked who they would vote for between Trump and Biden, 43 percent said Trump, compared to 42 percent for Biden — a difference of a single percentage point. That is within the survey’s +/- 1 percent margin of error, indicating a virtual tie. Another ten percent said “someone else,” and five percent remain unsure.

The survey asked the same question, pitting DeSantis against Biden. In that scenario, 44 percent support Biden, and 40 percent chose DeSantis — a difference of four percent. Eight percent said “someone else,” and another eight percent said “don’t know” — more than enough to swing the race in the Republican’s direction. 

That survey was taken March 2-5, 2023, among over 5,000 registered voters and has a +/- 1 percent margin of error. 

The survey also examined the favorability of each potential and formal GOP candidate and found Trump leading the pack, with 80 percent viewing him favorably, compared to 19 percent who do not. 

DeSantis falls to second with 66 percent viewing him favorably and 14 percent viewing him unfavorably. However, 11 percent said they have never heard of him. This is an issue several other candidates have, as 63 percent said they have never heard of Vivek Ramaswamy and 26 percent said they have never heard of Haley — the only candidates outside of Trump who have formally jumped in the race.

Not only has Trump continued to dominate in 2024 GOP primary polls, but several also show him leading Biden in a potential 2024 matchup. 

A Washington Post and ABC News survey taken ahead of Biden’s State of the Union address last month showed Trump leading 48 percent to 45 percent. Further, a McLaughlin & Associates survey released late February also showed Trump leading Biden by four points — 48 percent to 44 percent support.