Former President Donald Trump leads former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) and his other potential Republican primary opponents in South Carolina, the second GOP primary state in the nation, according to a poll.
Trump has the support of 35.1 percent of South Carolina Republican primary voters sampled in a Neighborhood Research and Media poll released Wednesday, giving him a double-digit lead.
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has the second-highest support at 21.8 percent, while another 16.4 percent back Haley, who officially announced her candidacy with an ad on Tuesday and is set to hold a campaign launch event on Wednesday.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), who the Wall Street Journal reports is “taking steps to run for president,” has 1.6 percent of support. Another 1.5 percent choose former Vice President Mike Pence, while 23.7 percent of the electorate is either undecided or likes a different candidate.
Though DeSantis has not announced his candidacy, he enjoys the best favorability rating of all candidates, at 69.6 percent, followed by Haley at 64 percent, Scott at 61.3 percent, and Trump at 54.2 percent.
Neighborhood Research and Media pollster Rick Shaftan noted that despite their positions as frontrunners in the Palmetto state, Trump, DeSantis, and Haley “have issues.”
Shaftan wrote:
Trump’s 35 percent ballot share, which only expands to 45 percent when second and third choices are counted, is underwhelming for a former president and barely higher than the 33 percent he won in the 2016 primary.
While DeSantis has the highest favorables of anyone tested, he has not closed the sale with many of his own supporters. In fact, DeSantis favorables back Trump 32-31 with 15 for Haley although DeSantis wins many of these voters back on the second ballot and 60 percent of DeSantis favorables support him as a first, second or third place choice.
Concerning Haley, 100 percent of participants recognized her name, yet 70 percent of them did not select her as one of their top three choices, and among voters that find both her favorable and Trump favorable, she is losing to Trump and DeSantis. Trump takes 57 percent of the demographic, followed by Desantis at 16 percent and Haley at 11 percent.
Shaftan emphasized that a split field could bode well for Trump, asserting that while his base is loyal, he is not likely to win over voters who are already opposed to him:
Although Trump scores far below 50 percent on the first ballot and isn’t even able to reach that number counting second and third place choices, he retains a solid and loyal committed base and enough to win the virtually winner take all South Carolina primary if the field is split.
Politico reported Monday that entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is mulling over a run, noting he was in the early-voting state of Iowa last week speaking to agriculture industry leaders. Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are weighing runs as well.
The poll was conducted from February 7-10 and 13-14 via phone and sampled 300 South Carolinians who participated in any of the last four GOP general election or midterm primaries and had not voted in a Democrat primary over that time. The margin of error is plus or mus 5.9 percentage points.
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