Political analysts from the UVA Center for Politics mark West Virginia’s U.S. Senate seat — which is currently held by a Democrat — as “Lean Republican” in the first set of projections for the 2024 cycle.
In the first projection, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik noted that starting the incumbent — Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) — as an “underdog” with the “Lean Republican” rating is “fairly unusual.”
The projection further explained that this rating is partially due to Manchin being undecided on running for reelection, which he reiterated last weekend during an interview on NBC, in addition to the state’s political landscape changing since he last ran.
In 2018 when he ran for reelection, he won by roughly three points against state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) in a good midterm year for Democrats, but the state has become redder over the years. During the 2020 presidential election, former President Donald Trump won the state by roughly 40 points.
“In a presidential year where the GOP nominee appears likely to win West Virginia by another landslide, we are skeptical of Manchin’s ability to generate the immense amount of crossover he will need,” Kondik wrote in his analysis, noting that recent polling showed Manchin’s approval is underwater in the state.
Additionally, with the state getting redder, many Republicans are looking to run for the Senate seat, leaving Kondik to write that the bottom line is that “Manchin is going to be hard-pressed to win again — and, if he retires, this should be a fairly easy GOP flip.”
National Republican Senate Committee spokesman Philip Letsou commented on the first projection of the race, saying, “West Virginians made it overwhelmingly clear they reject Joe Biden and his far-left agenda, but Joe Manchin sold them out when he led the way on Biden’s anti-coal, green energy boondoggle.”
“Joe Manchin has a simple choice: retire now or get fired in 2024,” Letsou added.
Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at jbliss@breitbart.com or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.