Survey: Trump Leads Potential Opponents in Hypothetical 2024 GOP Primary

Former President Donald Trump holds a double-digit lead over his potential opponents in a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary survey.

In the latest survey from Morning Consult’s “2024 GOP Primary Elections Tracker,” 45 percent of potential Republican primary voter participants support Trump in his quest for the presidential nomination, placing him as the front-runner. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) sits 11 points back of Trump in second place with 34 percent of the respondents’ support, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence at eight percent.

Former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) both have three percent support, while Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has just two percent. Govs. Greg Abbott (R-TX), Kristi Noem (R-SD), Glenn Youngkin (R-VA), and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo all sit at one percent.

DeSantis made modest gains compared to another Morning Consult survey from mid-December that showed him with 31 percent of the respondents’ support, while another 49 percent said they back Trump.

The current poll also asked Trump and DeSantis supporters who their second choice candidate would be. Of Trump supporters, 43 percent say DeSantis is their second option, another 20 percent say Pence, and 10 percent of the demographic get behind Cruz. Similarly, 34 percent of DeSantis voters say their second pick is Trump, followed by Pence at 16 percent, Haley at 13 percent, and Cruz at 10 percent.

The portion of the survey concerning the voters’ first and second picks in the hypothetical GOP primary included 4,829 potential GOP voter respondents. Morning Consult also gauged potential head-to-head general election matchups between Trump and President Joe Biden, as well as DeSantis and Biden. These surveys included “at least” 7000 registered voters from around the country.

In a Biden versus Trump rematch, the 45th president draws 40 percent of participants’ support, placing him four points back of Biden at 44 percent. DeSantis and Biden tie at 42 percent a piece in their hypothetical matchup.

Morning Consult collected its latest data between December 31- January 2.

“Across all times series, results among potential Republican primary voters have an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 1 to 2 percentage points, while results among all voters have an unweighted margin of error of 1 percentage point,” the polling outfit noted.