‘The Dems Are in Trouble:’ Early GOP Voters Enthusiastic in Nevada

Democrats’ statewide lead on the last day of early in-person voting in Nevada came in at “just one percent or 5,200 ballots,” signifying that “the Dems are in trouble…,” Jon Ralston wrote for The Nevada Independent’s early voting blog.

“But the questions is if it is big trouble or little trouble,” Ralston added.

Ralston noted that at this time in 2018, Democrats’ lead was 14,500 ballots or 3.4 percent, and a “last day surge” pushed the lead to 23,000 or 3.7 percent.

“Even if there were a surge today, the lead will get nowhere near that 2018 number. Furthermore, if you extrapolate the rural numbers to what the votes will almost surely look like, it erases the Clark Dem firewall. So once again, I say it: Washoe is the decider,” he wrote.

However, Ralston did liken conditions to a reverse of 2018 when Democrat voters were more enthusiastic because of what he called the “Trump Effect” — this time, he speculated the GOP will benefit from a “Biden Effect.” He also noted that Republicans are narrowly ahead in all but one of the models, and that Democrats have “less margin for error because their usual pre-Election Day vote-baking has been so diminished.”

Overall, Ralston wrote that “Dems need to hold their bases, hope for indies and crossover Rs and a robust Election Day turnout,” and added that if Republicans can stay strong with mail-in voting, they will “be in good shape going into Election Day.”

“This does not look like a red wave, as 2014 obviously did. That one we knew was coming long before Election Day. This time, the Dems are plugging every hole they can in the dam because the slightest crack could cause a flood,” Ralston concluded. “They are surviving right now, treading water (to continue the wet metaphors), and we will know by the end of today just how high the red tide is rising.”