Utah Poll: Mike Lee in ‘Prize Position’ as He Leads Never Trumper Evan McMullin by 19 Points in Senate Race

Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) leads Never Trumper Utah independent Senate candidate Evan McMullin by 19 points one week from the election, according to a poll released on Tuesday.

OH Predictive Insights released its poll, which found that Lee leads McMullin 53 to 34 percent one week from the pivotal midterm elections,

Mike Noble, the OH Predictive Insights chief of research, said in a statement, “Mike Lee is in a prize position being over the all-important 50% threshold this close to Election Day. McMullin will be hard-pressed to make a push in these final days if he hopes to make up the ground on incumbent Mike Lee.”

The survey noted that Lee garners support from a strong majority of Republicans, with mixed support from independents and Democrats. In contrast, McMullin garners support from 60 percent of Utah Democrats, 49 percent of independents, and 38 percent of Republicans.

The problem for McMullin is that, according to OH Predictive Insights, “there are a lot more Republicans than Independents and Democrats amongst the Utah likely voting electorate.”

The poll also revealed that Lee has strong support amongst likely voters, whereas McMullin’s supporters are less “united”:

The recent survey asked Mike Lee voters whether they were showing support because they were in favor of him, or because they were simply voting against McMullin. With nearly 9 in 10 saying they are doing so because they are in favor of him, Lee’s base is founded on true support. On the flip side, Evan McMullin’s coalition of support is less united. Half of those who said they are voting for McMullin are doing so because they are voting against Lee (49%), while 45% said they were voting in favor of McMullin.

“What is also interesting is that among Republicans voting for Evan McMullin, a majority (53%) are voting against Mike Lee, which highlights the ideological division playing out in the GOP ranks as of late,” Noble remarked.

This is the second poll to find that Lee has a comfortable lead over McMullin.

Emerson College released a poll on Monday finding that Lee leads McMullin by ten points.

OH Predictive Insights contacted 600 likely voters between October 25 and 27. The margin of error is four percent.