Polls: Blake Masters Neck and Neck with Democrat Mark Kelly in Arizona Senate Race

Republican Blake Masters is neck and neck with Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, according to a pair of polls published Monday.

One poll conducted by Fabrizio, Lee, & Associates on behalf of the conservative group Club for Growth Action shows that 46 percent of likely voters are backing Masters while 47 percent support Kelly. Another three percent say they plan to vote for Libertarian candidate Marc Victor. Masters is within the 3.5 percent margin of error, making the race a statistical dead heat. In a contest between Kelly and Masters without Victor, the pair would be tied at 49 percent a piece, according to the poll that was first published by NBC News.

Masters has the support of 85 percent of the Republican respondents versus Kelly’s 10 percent. Conversely, 93 percent of Democrats are behind Kelly, and only five percent intend to vote for Masters. Kelly holds a five-point lead over the Republican candidate among Latinos, at 48 percent to 45 percent, respectively.

From October 24 through October 26, Fabrizio Lee & Associates sampled 800 likely general election voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus roughly 3.5 percentage points.

Club for Growth Action and several other Super PACs, including Saving Arizona and former President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc., have spent big on advertising in the home stretch of the race. Club for Growth Action has purchased $5.5 million in advertisements, and Saving Arizona has purchased $3.7 million in ad buys in recent weeks, while MAGA Inc. spent $2.75 million on a pair of ads in October.

A separate poll, released Monday by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), shows the Trump-endorsed Republican is within two points of Kelly after cutting the deficit by a whopping 11 points in just three weeks. Of likely voters who participated in the OHPI Predictive Insights poll, 48 percent say they back Kelly, and 46 percent support Masters. The remaining six percent of respondents were either equally split between Victor supporters and undecideds. As Masters is within the four percent margin of error, the candidates are statistically tied.

Masters has made tremendous ground when compared to another OHPI poll published on October 12, which showed him 13 points behind Kelly. In that poll, the Democrat took 46 percent of the response, while 33 percent of participants backed Masters and 15 percent chose Victor.

“The Senate contest went from sleeper to competitive in this past month — Kelly’s massive spending advantage over Masters may not be enough to hold his seat,” said OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble.

This current OH Predictive Insight poll surveyed 600 likely voters from October 24-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.