Final Atlanta Journal-Constitution Poll: Herschel Walker Leads in Georgia

Republican Herschel Walker has a one-point edge over incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in the battleground race for the U.S. Senate in Georgia, according to a poll published Monday.

The poll, conducted by the University of Georgia and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Georgia’s largest newspaper, found Walker at 46 percent, Warnock at 45 percent, and libertarian candidate Chase Oliver at five percent.

Another five percent of respondents said they were undecided.

The poll was taken October 16 through October 27 and signals the state’s marquee race could be headed for a runoff should no candidate cross the 50 percent threshold required by Georgia law. A runoff election would take place on December 6.

The poll was taken during the course of a tumultuous October in which both candidates were hit with a slew of media attacks.

Walker was accused by two different anonymous women of urging them to get abortions, first on October 3 in a report by the Daily Beast and again on October 26 via celebrity feminist attorney Gloria Allred. Meanwhile, a report that surfaced in the Washington Free Beacon on October 11 revealed the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, where Warnock has long served as senior pastor, initiated eviction processes for several tenants between 2020 and 2022 while Warnock was advocating for an eviction moratorium in Congress and while he was receiving a cushy housing stipend from the church.

Despite the negative headlines, the last AJC poll, published in September, also found Walker at 46 percent, while Warnock was at 44 percent. The outlet’s poll before that, published in July, had Walker down at 43 percent and Warnock still in the mid-40s, at 46 percent.

The trajectory of results reveal Walker picked up and maintained momentum late in the summer, while Warnock, who is one of the most well-funded Democrats in the country, has remained flat.

The topline results of the poll bode well not just for Walker but for Republicans across the board.

In the contentious gubernatorial rematch between Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and Democrat Stacey Abrams, Kemp continues to hold a commanding lead over Abrams. The governor bests Abrams by seven points, 51 percent to 44 percent, indicating Kemp could win reelection outright on election night and avoid a runoff.

Asked which party respondents want to see win control of Congress, 51 percent said Republicans, while 46 percent said Democrats.

The poll comes as early voting is well underway in Georgia. The Secretary of State’s office reported Monday that a midterm-year record of 1.7 million voters had already cast their ballots, signaling enthusiasm among voters is high ahead of November 8.

The poll was conducted among 1,022 likely general election voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.