Based on recent polling, RealClearPolitics projects Republicans will win the hotly contested gubernatorial races in four states that were once seen as Democrat strongholds: Wisconsin, Oregon, Nevada, and, yes, Michigan.
One wonders how the latest polling out of Minnesota — polling that shows Republican Dr. Scott Jensen leading his Democrat opponent Tim Walz, 46.3 to 45.8 percent — will affect that RealClear projection.
Jensen appears to be surging in Minnesota, where Walz, the incumbent governor, did nothing in 2020 as the domestic terrorists in Antifa and Black Lives Matter burned down his cities and terrified his residents.
The Minnesota poll comes from Trafalgar, the most accurate pollster in America.
Momentum matters most when we are less than three weeks from Election Day. So, too, does the fact the incumbent is underwater. If you look at all the Minnesota polls, Walz has only hit 50 twice.
In part, RealClear is basing its projections with an eye on how poorly most pollsters underestimated GOP turnout in the last few election cycles.
In Nevada, in the RCP poll of polls, Republican Joe Lombardo beats Democrat Steve Sisolak 46.6 to 44.8 percent. That’s a nearly two-point advantage. Because polling in Nevada has been pretty accurate, no major adjustments are necessary to call this one.
The RCP poll of polls shows the Wisconsin governor’s race a tie. But polling out of Wisconsin has underestimated GOP turnout by a whopping 5.2 points, so RCP projects Republican Tim Michaels is beating incumbent Democrat Tony Evers by 5.2 points. Dairy Staters have not forgotten how Evers stood by and did nothing as the terrorists in Black Lives Matter and Antifa burned Kenosha to the ground.
Oregon is an easy projection. Republican Christine Drazen has led in every poll against Democrat Tina Kotek and independent Betsy Johnson. Currently, the RCP poll of polls has Drazen up 2.8 points.
RCP’s most fascinating projection comes from Michigan, where the Democrat incumbent — the objectively hideous Gretchen Whitmer — was cruising to an easy reelection. But Republican Tudor Dixon has run a superb campaign, clearly won the debate earlier this month, and is surging. In the RCP poll of polls, Whitmer enjoyed a double-digit lead just a few weeks ago. Since the debate, Tudor has climbed within an average of three points. Because polling in Michigan has underestimated GOP turnout by 5.7 points, RCP projects Dixon will defeat the fascist Whitmer by 2.7 points.
Keep in mind that these numbers can and will change as more polling comes in.
But when you look at how the GOP is surging across the country and how Democrats and their media allies are sweating bullets, everything points to the political climate only improving for Republicans. Democrats have nothing to run on other than killing babies. Republicans are crushing Democrats on all the issues that matter: the economy, the border, and crime. There is also the underlying issue of how Democrats are grooming children through transsexual propaganda. The Democrat party is flooding schools with gay porn, exposing small children to sexually explicit drag queens, and encouraging children to mutilate themselves with irreversible sex change operations and puberty blockers.
On top of targeting children, Democrats have done an awful job governing their states and the country. The American people are ready to let their thoughts on these failures — as well as anti-science school closures and masking — be known.
There’s a reckoning coming.
Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC. Follow his Facebook Page here.
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