Oregon Guv Race: More Polling Shows Republican Christine Drazan Narrowly Leading Opponents

Republican Christine Drazan is closely leading Democrat Tina Kotek and Democrat-turned-independent Betsy Johnson in yet another poll released ahead of the high-stakes Oregon gubernatorial election.

A poll released by The Hoffman Research Group shows former Oregon House Republican leader Drazan ahead of former Oregon House Speaker Kotek 37 percent to 35 percent, within the survey’s ±3.8 percent margin of error. Former Democrat state senator Johnson, who is running as an independent, garnered 17 percent, and 12 percent remain undecided.

The Hoffman Research Group surveyed 684 likely Oregon voters between Oct. 17-18 at the 95 percent confidence level.

Drazan has the highest favorable rating among the candidates (35 percent), compared to Johnson (23 percent) and Kotek (31 percent). Kotek has the highest unfavorable rating (43 percent), compared to Johnson (32 percent) and Drazan (32 percent). 

Thirty six percent of those polled say they are more likely to either “always” (16 percent) or “sometimes” (20 percent) vote for a Republican candidate. Twenty-two percent say “sometimes” a Democrat candidate and 16 percent say “always.” Twenty-six percent say “either or neither party.”

Undecided voters tend to lean more toward Kotek (26 percent) than Drazan (24 percent), though those results are also within the survey’s margin of error. Twenty percent of undecided are leaning toward Johnson. 

All polling since August has shown Drazan narrowly leading Kotek and leading Johnson by double digits. RealClearPolitics (RCP) gives Drazan a 2.8 point advantage when averaging out recent polling, ranks the race a “toss up” and projects a “GOP Pickup.” 

If Drazan were to secure the governorship in November, she would be the first Republican governor deep blue Oregon has seen in 40 years.