Republican MAGA superstar Kari Lake is up by three points over Democrat Katie Hobbs, per a Trafalgar Group/Daily Wire poll.

This same poll also shows Republican Blake Masters surging against incumbent Democrat and Biden puppet Mark Kelly for Arizona’s U.S. Senate race:

Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is ahead of her Democratic opponent, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, with a lead just inside the poll’s 2.9-point margin of error: 49.2% to 46.4%. Republican Blake Masters at 46.4% is running close behind incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly (47.4%).

According to the RealClearPolitics poll of polls, Lake has led in all but one poll taken in October. She’s held a stubborn three-point lead in three polls (including this one). Hobbs, Arizona’s secretary of state, has only led in a single October poll, and that was by just one point.

Overall, in that poll of polls, RealClearPolitics has Lake up 1.6 points, 47.8 to 46.2 percent.

The good news for Lake is that it’s Trafalgar showing her up by three. Trafalgar is the most accurate pollster in the country right now.

Hobbs has four problems working against her…

The first is His Fraudulency Joe Biden’s unpopularity.

The second is that Hobbs chickened out on the opportunity to debate Lake. Even the far-left media can’t cover up for a Democrat who makes such a bone-head move. You have to debate, or the media will kill you. By refusing to debate, Hobbs took away opportunities for the media to preen as moderators and preen while covering the event. You have to debate. I understand why Hobbs chickened out. She knew Lake would wipe the floor with her.

Still, better to have a negative 48-hour news cycle over a bad debate performance than a negative four-week news cycle about your cowardice.

What’s more, the public expects their candidates to go toe-to-toe. Candidates who cower from debates lose their alpha male status. It’s alpha males (or females) who win elections.

Hobbs’ third problem is Kari Lake is a star. Wait. Let’s rephrase that… a Stah! Her poise, her preparedness, her charisma, her beauty, her handling of the media… Plus, she never makes mistakes or has to backtrack on her comments.

Lake’s poise is supernatural. The fake media are desperate to trip Lake up, to trap her into saying something that puts her on defense, and she continues to put on masterclasses like this one:

This is another reason Hobbs didn’t want to debate. Standing next to Lake, Hobbs knew she’d look like the cheerleader’s ugly and awkward best friend.

Hobbs’s fourth problem — and no one talks about this because no one’s allowed to say anything other than the Emperor is fully clothed these days — is that Hobbs has the speaking voice of a spoiled, eight-year-old girl informing someone they are not invited to her birthday party:

With three weeks to go to Election Day, everything might feel like it’s surging the GOP’s way, but it always was. It’s just that now that Election Day is close, fake pollsters must try to salvage their reputations by not juicing their polls so much. Trafalgar has always shown Lake in the lead.

 Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC. Follow his Facebook Page here.