Trafalgar Poll: Majority Would Vote for Republican on Generic Ballot

The majority of likely general election voters would support the Republican candidate over the Democrat on the generic congressional ballot based on the latest Trafalgar Group poll released Wednesday.

The poll found that of the 1,084 likely general election voters surveyed, 51.3 percent said they would vote for the generic Republican candidate, up from 47.2 percent in last month’s Trafalgar poll. In contrast, only 45.6 percent of the respondents said they would vote for the generic Democrat.

There was 3.1 percent of respondents who said they were unsure who to vote for in the election.

The Trafalgar Group poll sampled likely general election voters from September 25 to 27, with a 2.9 percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.

While the Democrats are nearly six points behind the Republicans, this poll also sampled more Democrats than Republicans and independents. There was 39.3 percent party participation in the survey from the 1,084 likely general election voters, only 35.6 percent from the Republicans, and 25.1 percent identified as “non-partisan” or “other.”

In recent weeks, the Democrats and the establishment media have been attempting to hype the Democrats’ hopes of retaining their majority in the House and the Senate, but President Joe Biden’s polling, which is a bellwether for the midterm election outcome, runs counter to the media’s narrative.

The same Trafalgar Group poll showed that Biden’s approval is underwater, with a majority (55.7 percent) saying they disapprove of the way the president has been handling his job, while only 39.7 approve of him.

In fact, despite the Democrats’ hopes, the RealClearPolitics generic congressional ballot average showed that Republicans have surged past the Democrats by one percent after the latest polls have been added from Trafalgar Group, the Economist/YouGov, Morning Consult/Politico, and Rasmussen Reports.