Poll: Laxalt, Lombardo Lead Vulnerable Incumbent Democrats Ahead of Nevada Midterms

U.S. Senate candidate Adam Laxalt and Nevada gubernatorial-hopeful Joe Lombardo are both leading their incumbent Democrat opponents, a new Trafalgar Group poll found.

Former Nevada Attorney General Laxalt is leading Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) — who is widely considered one of the most at risk Demorcarts — 47 percent to 43 percent. The four point lead is notably outside of the survey’s 2.9 percent margin of error.

The Trafalgar Group poll is the first poll in over a month to show Laxalt leading Cortez Masto outside of a survey’s margin of error. An early September poll from The Hill/Emerson College had Laxalt ahead by one point, and a Fabrizio/Anzalone poll in August had Cortez Masto leading by one point.

RealClearPolitics (RCP) gives the Nevada U.S. Senate race a “toss-up” rating and lists its projection as a “GOP Pickup.” The RCP polling average has Laxalt ahead by 1.3 percentage points.

Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is also leading Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) 48 percent to 45 percent, which is narrowly outside of the survey’s 2.9 percent margin of error.

RCP shows Lombardo’s average lead at 1.6 percentage points, and also ranks the Nevada gubernatorial race a “toss-up” and projects and “GOP pickup.” The aforementioned polling ranked Lombardo either slightly ahead of Sisolak or tied with the incumbent.

Trafalgar polled 1086 likely 2022 general election voters between Sept. 17-20 at the 95 percent confidence level. The poll saw 37 percent Democrat participation, 35 percent Republican participation and 28 percent no party/other. More than 51 percent of participants are women and 48.6 are men. 

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