Poll: Derek Schmidt, Laura Kelly Statistically Tied Ahead of Kansas Gubernatorial Race

The Kansas gubernatorial race is extremely close ahead of election day, with Democrat Gov. Laura Kelly leading Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt within a new survey’s margin of error.

Emerson College Polling/The Hill released its first survey of the Kansas Gubernatorial race on Wednesday, showing Kelly with a two point lead over Trump-endorsed Schmidt, 45 percent to 43 percent. The Credibility Interval (CI), which is similar to a margin of error, is ±3 percentage points, meaning Kelly and Schmidt are in a statistical tie.

Only three percent of 1,000 somewhat and very likely voters polled support independent candidate Dennis Pyle, and eight percent are undecided.

Women (51 to 36 percent) and independent voters ( 46 to 30 percent) favor Kelly over Schmidt, while men favor Schmidt over Kelly 51 to 38 percent.

Like in most other elections across the country, Kansans report being most concerned about the economy. Forty-eight percent of those polled chose the economy, distantly followed by “abortion access” (16 percent), healthcare (nine percent), and immigration (seven percent).

When it comes to favorability ratings, 53 percent of Kansas voters reportedly have a favorable outlook on Kelly’s time in office. Thirty-seven percent view her unfavorably and five percent are undecided. According to the report:

Schmidt, while being viewed favorably by 45 percent of voters and unfavorably to 37 percent, is still either unheard of or neutral to 20 percent of the state. Among undecided voters, almost twice as many (64 percent) haven’t heard of or have no opinion on the challenger, compared to 33 percent for the incumbent.

On a national scale, President Joe Biden is still wildly unpopular with Kansas voters and holds a low 36 percent approval rating and a high 58 percent disapproval rating. The poll report states:

In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, a majority (52 percent) would support Trump and 36 percent Biden, 9 percent would support someone else and 4 percent are undecided. In 2020, Trump won Kansas 56 percent to 42 percent.

While there has not been much polling of the Kansas race besides the new Emerson College poll, both the Cook Political Report and RealClearPolitics rate the race a “toss-up” and project the state to be a “GOP pickup.” Kelly and Schmidt are set to face off in their second debate on October 5.