A left-leaning pollster is showing Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC) leading former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) in the race to fill retiring Sen. Richard Burr’s (R-NC) seat.

With less than 60 days to go until the North Carolina U.S. Senate race, 49 percent of likely voters would cast a ballot for Budd and 46 percent support Beasley, an East Carolina University (ECU) poll found. Just four percent of respondents report being “undecided.” ECU has B/C credibility rating on FiveThirtyEight and has called 64 percent of 11 races correctly. The pollster also categorically overestimates support for Democrat candidates.

ECU notes that the race has “narrowed significantly” since it conducted a poll in May when Budd led by 8 percentage points, although that poll was conducted with registered voters instead of likely voters. The results are within the survey’s ± 3.6 percent Credibility Interval (CI). ECU conducted the survey between September 7-10 with 1,020 likely voters in North Carolina.

Beasley has gained the most support from women since ECU last polled North Carolinians.

“Beasley currently leads Budd 52 percent to 41 percent among likely female voters. (She previously trailed Budd, 44 percent to 40 percent among registered female voters in May.) Budd, however, holds a significant advantage among men. In the latest poll, Budd leads 58 percent to 39 percent among likely male voters,” the survey report states. 

The overturning of Roe v. Wade has seemingly rallied some of Beasley’s supporters, according to the survey report. Sixty-seven percent of those who plan to vote for Beasley say Roe’s overturning is a “very important factor” or “the most important factor.” Forty percent of those who plan to vote for Budd also say the decision is a “very important factor” or “the most important factor.”

Beasley leads Budd with African American voters (86 percent to 11 percent) and voters under 30 (57 percent to 35 percent). Budd is leading Beasley among white voters (60 percent to 35 percent) and voters ages 65 and over (55 percent to 41 percent). He is also leading in the western part of the state (61 percent to 35 percent), and in the eastern part of the state (57 percent to 35 percent).

“Budd’s lead in the Piedmont/Central region is slimmer (50 percent to 47 percent), while Beasley holds clear leads in the Raleigh/Durham area (54 percent to 37 percent) as well as the Charlotte area (59 percent to 39 percent),” the report states. 

The ECU poll also claims that President Joe Biden’s job performance in the state is 9 points higher than in May, up 44 percent from 39 percent. A nationwide poll in September from Civiqs found that only 39 percent of registered voters approve of Biden heading into the midterms. Forty-six percent of poll respondents would choose Donald Trump and 45 percent would choose Biden “if the 2024 presidential election were held today,” the survey report states.