Nevada Poll: Laxalt, Lombardo Statistically Tied with Opponents, Democrats See Dwindling Hispanic Support

A poll shows Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) leading their GOP opponents within the survey’s margin of error — a statistical tie — and losing Hispanic voter support.

Cortez Masto is leading Attorney General Adam Laxalt by 44 percent to 40 percent in the Nevada U.S. Senate race, and Sisolak is leading Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo 41 percent to 38 percent, the AARP-commissioned poll found. The poll is the latest in a string of surveys reflecting the extremely close nature of the senate and gubernatorial races in swing state Nevada.

“Despite those slim leads, the poll revealed shrinking margins of support from Hispanic voters for both Cortez Masto and Sisolak, who both relied heavily on the state’s Democratic-leaning Latino voting bloc during their most recent electoral wins,” according to the Nevada Independent, which obtained the poll on Thursday.

During Cortez Masto’s 2016 U.S. Senate victory and Sisolak’s 2018 gubernatorial win, both led by 30 points with Latino voters in their elections. The AARP poll shows Cortez Masto leading with the same demographic by just 11 points and Sisolak by 14 points. Those leads drop to 9 points each with Hispanic voters ages 50-plus.

Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research conducted the poll for AARP between August 16-24 with 1,332 likely Nevada voters. The pollsters oversampled 550 likely voters over the age of 50 and 282 Hispanic voters over the age of 50, and the results were weighted to align with the states electoral demographics. The margin of error is 4.4 percent.

Both Tony Fabrizio and Matt Hogan with Impact research spoke to the publication about the impact dwindling Hispanic support for Democrats could have on both elections in November. The Nevada Independent also noted the 50-plus voter block is “crucial in Nevada elections, with voters in the group typically making up more than half of the state’s electors.”

“We’re basically seeing, nationally, Latino voters moving away from Democrats,” Hogan said. “We saw it from 2018 to 2020, and we’ve seen it continue from 2020 to now. … We’re seeing the trend here in Nevada.”

Older voters on both sides of the political aisle listed economic issues as their top concern in the governor’s race, 24 percent choosing “inflation and rising prices” and 11 percent choosing “jobs and the economy.” The second most pressing issues are border security, immigration, and election security, each at 9 percent.

In the Senate race, 22 percent of older voters say the economy and inflation are of most concern, and thirteen percent say “taxes, government spending and debt.” Social Security and Medicare came in third at 12 percent.

Abortion was low on the list of priorities for older Nevada voters (7 percent), and two-thirds of those polled say inflation is more pressing than the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Fabrizio noted this is likely because Nevada voters already codified abortion up to 24 weeks in 1990 — a referendum which has little chance of being changed in the near future.

Fabrizio told the publication both Sisolak and Cortez Masto would lose their elections if they were held today, crediting low favorability, inflation, President Joe Biden’s tanked approval rating, and a GOP tilt among undecided voters. In contrast, Hogan said the poll shows that Sisolak and Cortez Masto are “overcoming that challenging … political environment” because the race is so tight.

Either way, both pollsters agree it will be a close race all the way up to election day.

“This is going to be a barnburner all the way to the end,” Fabrizio said.

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