Democrats are increasingly selling a comeback narrative that they believe will help them defend Congress in the 2022 midterm elections — and Republicans have been slow to respond with a clear argument as to why voters should choose them.
The comeback story goes like this:
First, the Supreme Court’s decision to reverse Roe v. Wade provoked outrage among pro-choice women, and motivated them to defend their “rights” (the question of the baby’s rights, of course, is not a factor).
Second: Inflation has slowed recently, thanks to a decline in fuel prices that Democrats attribute to President Joe Biden’s release of oil from the nation’s strategic reserve. (That had a negligible impact, compared to demand factors, but it sells well.)
Third: Biden has managed to pass historic legislation and to take unprecedented action on Democratic priorities. Biden had to compromise to pass gun control and “inflation reduction” (i.e. climate change) bills, but he found a path to legislative success.
Fourth: Biden has managed to fight terror even after the disastrous pullout from Afghanistan. Evidence: the recent killing of Al Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri in Kabul. Bonus: Biden will soon unveil a new Iran nuclear deal, and will claim victory.
Biden has the media on his side, who are hyping all of these arguments, largely ignoring the wide-open southern border, the national crime wave, and the fact that we are enduring what they would call a recession under any Republican president.
Notably, there are some counter-trends. The Democrats’ radicalism on social issues, notably transgenderism, has pushed some voters toward Republicans. And Biden’s recent (arguably illegal) student loan bailout has outraged working-class voters.
But there, too, Biden can point to the fact that he is delivering on a campaign promise. The White House dismisses the idea that spending another trillion dollars — without addressing the underlying problems in higher education — will boost inflation.
Republicans are struggling to find an answer to the comeback narrative.
The Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization is proof for social conservatives that voting for conservatives might eventually yield results.
But there is no clear next step for Republicans on this issue, and suggestions about passing a nationwide abortion ban — after the court left the issue to the states — probably motivate pro-choice Democrats more than they do the conservative base.
Inflation is still a major issue for voters, and will likely be for many months to come, but it is unclear what Congress can do about it, other than cutting government spending — and that is something Republicans are no better at doing than Democrats.
Republicans have few legislative proposals to grab voters’ attention. Moreover, some of Biden’s biggest legislative successes have been bipartisan, including the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, making it harder to Republicans to formulate an alternative.
And on foreign policy, while Republicans have pounded Biden for weakness against America’s enemies, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) seized headlines with a dramatic trip to Taiwan, shoring up her party’s’ foreign policy credentials.
There are only two issues on which there is a clear advantage for Republicans:
One is the border. There is absolutely nothing Democrats can say to defend Biden’s terrible policy — especially now that the migrants are showing up in “sanctuary cities.”
The other is education — the issue that propelled Republican victories in 2021, when Democrats told parents they had no say in their children’s classrooms. Recent conservative victories in Florida school board races show this is still a big motivator.
Finally, there is also the Trump factor. At this stage it is unclear whether he is a bonus or a burden for Republicans. Democrats have managed to use their control of Congress, their influence in the media, and their partisan sway over the Department of Justice to keep Donald Trump at the center of the conversation.
While many Republican voters are outraged by the recent raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home, and many may feel more motivated to show up at the polls, it has crowded out other issues.
The task for Republicans is to shape a message that is independent of Trump, and that focuses on the party’s clear strengths on border security and education. Unless they can find that message soon, they risk squandering a historic, and crucial, election.
Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). He is the author of the recent e-book, Neither Free nor Fair: The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. His recent book, RED NOVEMBER, tells the story of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary from a conservative perspective. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.
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