We now have two separate polls showing Pennsylvania’s closely-watched U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races are too close to call.
After a series of polls showed Democrat U.S. Senate candidate and former Mayor John Fetterman with what looked like an insurmountable lead over GOP candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz, that lead is not looking so insurmountable now.
An Emerson poll shows it’s just a four-point Senate race, with Fetterman up 48 to 44 percent.
Trafalgar, which has proven over three election cycles to be a remarkably accurate pollster, also shows a four-point race, with Fetterman up 48 to 44 percent.
Oz’s hurdle is cultural. Fetterman, though he is a left-wing extremist who wants to empty the prisons and kill the economy with enviro-fascism, is selling himself as a regular guy’s regular guy against the effete Dr. Oz.
Mehmet Oz, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, speaks at a primary night election gathering in Newtown, Pa., Tuesday, May 17, 2022. (AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey)
If Oz can move the race to issues, he can win. Another issue, although it’s a touchy one, is the obvious damage Fetterman’s recent and devastating stroke has had on him. As of now, he’s unable to speak for more than a few minutes, and even during those few minutes, the unfortunate effects of the stroke on his speech and energy are obvious.
John Fetterman, lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania and Democratic senate candidate, speaks during a campaign rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, US, on Friday, Aug. 12, 2022. (Justin Merriman/Bloomberg)
Although I hope Fetterman makes a full and robust recovery, as of now, he does not seem to be physically or mentally able to hold the job of a U.S. Senator.
Things appear to be moving even more aggressively towards the GOP in the governor’s race. What looked like something close to a blowout for Democrat Attorney General Josh Shapiro against Republican State Sen. Doug Mastriano is now within the margin of error.
Pennsylvania state Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-Franklin, in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania, April 1, 2022. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
Emerson College polling has a three-point race, with Shapiro up 47 to 44 percent. Trafalgar shows a four-point race, with Shapiro up 49 to 45 percent.
In this November 26, 2019, file photo, Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro speaks at Muhlenberg High School in Reading, Pennsylvania. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
Other than a couple of outliers, including the truly awful pollsters at Fox News, the governor’s race has always been pretty close. Mastriano has never once taken a lead, but it’s been within three or four.
The good news for both Republicans is that most pollsters tend to under poll Republican voters. The bad news is that Trafalgar is not most pollsters and is usually right on the money.
This late in the race, momentum matters. It will matter much more come November, as will enthusiasm, the state of Joe Biden’s economy, the quality of the respective candidates, and all the crazy things that can happen in the 12 or so weeks between now and election day, especially with a media and federal law enforcement as corrupt as ours.
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