Plurality Predict Higher Inflation, Gas Prices Six Months from Now

A plurality of Americans predict that inflation will rise and gas prices will be higher six months from now, a poll from The Economist/YouGov found.

A plurality, 46 percent, believe there will be a higher rate of inflation six months from now, compared to 21 percent who said it will be the same. Just 18 percent said it will be lower, and 14 percent remain unsure. 

Democrats have the most positive outlook, as over one-third, 34 percent, believe there will be a lower rate of inflation in six months. However, 51 percent of independents and 64 percent of Republicans believe it will be higher. 

The survey also asked respondents where they believe gas prices will be in six months. A plurality, 37 percent, predict they will be higher, followed by 28 percent who said lower, 22 percent who said the same, and 12 percent who remain unsure. 

Overall, the economic outlook among Americans is not good, as 45 percent said the economy is “shrinking,” compared to just 18 percent who said it is growing. 

The survey was taken August 7-9, 2022, among 1,500 U.S. adults and coincides with the Department of Labor’s Wednesday report showing inflation rising by 8.5 percent in July:

Economists had expected CPI to rise at an annual rate of 8.7 percent, down from 9.1 percent in June. They expected a month-over-month increase of 0.2 percent, a sharp decline from the 1.1 percent recorded in June.

Inflation has hit American families hard by raising prices for everyday necessities like food, gasoline, housing, transportation, and utilities. A sizeable decline in the price of gasoline in July, which retreated from record highs hit the prior month, helped bring down the overall rate of inflation. The index for gasoline fell 7.1 percent in July. Compared with a year ago, the gas index is up 44 percent.

However, everyday items have risen beyond 8.5 percent, as the Consumer Price Index summary shows food up 10.9 percent over the last year and energy up 32.9 percent.