Analysis: Republican Recruitment Foreshadows Large Gains in House

The lobbying firm Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas released an analysis of the election years the House of Representatives changed the majority, indicating a potential “Red Wave” coming in the midterms after the Republicans have had a strong recruiting year.

The analysis showed that the trend of good recruitment indicates strong potential for a “Red Wave.”

One of the charts shows that “Republicans are more eager to run” for office than Democrats, and historic trends demonstrate that having more candidates running gives you better chances of winning.

In 1998 the Republicans only had ten more candidates running than the Democrats did, which led to the Democrats gaining net five seats. And in 2002, the Republicans had 39 more candidates running, which led to a net gain of eight GOP seats.

However, when either side had over a hundred more candidates than the other, it resulted in a “wave.”

In 2006, the Democrats had 104 more candidates than the Republicans, which resulted in a Democrat majority of plus 31. The same thing happened in 2018 for the Democrats when they had over 291 more candidates than the Republicans, and the party won back the House plus 41 seats.

The Republicans have had a more significant yield when it comes to elected members in waves.

In 1994 the Republicans had 120 more candidates than the Democrats, which resulted in a Republican majority of plus 54. And the same thing happened in 2010, during the Tea Party movement. The Republicans had 461 more candidates, resulting in a majority of 63.

The question the analysis poses is what the outcome of this midterm election will be, as the Republicans have 384 more candidates running than the Democrats. Going off of trends, the Republicans should have a massive class of new members and a majority.

In addition, the analysis showed that Democrats are “more eager” to retire than Republicans during a midterm year. In this midterm election, there have already been 34 Democrats who have retired.

Mike Berg, the spokesman for the NRCC, the Republican House Campaign arm, noted, “A record number of quality candidates are running for the House as Republicans this cycle because Americans are fed up with Democrats’ record of higher prices, higher crime, and an unmitigated crisis at the southern border.”

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at jbliss@breitbart.com or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.