Exclusive: Polling Data Suggests Red Wave even in Blue States

Republicans are emboldened by polling data pointing to a red wave across the country, even in traditionally blue states, Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) Communications Director Andrew Romeo explained to Breitbart News Saturday host Matthew Boyle this past weekend.

The Republican State Leadership Committee is the Republican campaign arm aligned with the state and candidate and helps elect Republican state legislators, lieutenant governors, secretaries of state, agriculture officials, and state judges across the country.

When discussing Nevada’s polling data, Romeo said that his data is showing a “bad time to be a Democrat, anywhere right now.” He continued, “it’s a bad time to be a Democrat” running for office because “voters right now are just basically allergic to Democrat control. They don’t like what they’re seeing out of Democrat-controlled Washington, and they certainly don’t like what they’re seeing in Democrat-controlled states.”

The polling conducted in Nevada showed that Republicans lead on the state legislative generic ballot by two points, 48 percent to 46 percent. In fact, independent and nonpartisan respondents viewed Republicans more favorably by 16 and four points, respectively.

“Not only is [Biden’s] favourability just completely in a tank in a state like Nevada and, and other states,” Romeo explained. “But when voters are actually asked, it’s not just Biden, it’s the policies that Democrats and Biden’s Democrat allies are passing in D.C. voters don’t like. Those independent voters, swing voters, they’re tired of the policies. They know that the reckless spending that’s come out of Washington has driven up inflation, which is the top issue in every single state right now — every single battleground state voters know that they’re paying more and it’s because of Joe Biden Democrats in Washington.”

Additionally, the favorability for Democrat state legislatures also showed they were underwater by six points, 42 percent to 48 percent. And the polling found that President Joe Biden had a “dismal image rating” of 41 percent, while 57 percent had a negative view of him. In fact, a majority said they want to elect legislatures that will enact opposite policies to push back on Biden.

“[Voters] also know that it’s because of Democrats in the states that have pursued the same policies, their base state Democrats are mimicking Joe Biden’s radical liberal agenda, and voters are catching on to that,” Romeo said. “So what they’re saying is, we want to send people to our state legislatures that kind of serve as the last one is an offense against these radical Biden policies. And give us a chance to kind of weather the storm that Biden’s created with the national economy.”

Talking about the other states the RSLC did polling in — Oregon, Maine, and Washington — Romeo said the Republicans are in good shape and in striking distance to not only make massive gains within in the November elections but to also possibly flip the legislative chambers.

Romeo explained that following the polls, which show good signs for the Republicans, the RSLC would be reevaluating their targets after noticing more states are flippable.

“The Oregon numbers are just absolutely surprising, a state that Biden won … and he’s that much underwater is just totally telling of how much there’s a rejection of Democratic control right now. And if you really dig into it, it’s just, it’s because of the top issues in the policies,” Romeo insisted. “People in Oregon are fed up with the lack of support for law enforcement and the lack of ability of Democrat leaders to keep their streets safe. And that’s why in that state of all these four states, we polled, public safety was a top issue there. So it’s the economy, but there’s also a public safety component to all these things.”

The polling data done statewide in Oregon found that the Democrats’ decade-long trifecta in the state is vulnerable ahead of November. The poll showed that Republicans are looking good going into the general election as the voters are worried about the rising cost of living and crime in the state.

The data showed that only 36 percent of the respondents from Oregon said they felt their state was headed in the right direction, while a majority (58 percent) said they believed it was headed on the wrong track. In fact, the elected Democrats’ favorability was underwater by double digits with the respondents as only 39 percent viewed them favorably and a majority (52 percent) viewed them negatively.

However, on the generic ballot, Republicans are leading on the state legislative generic ballot by four points, 47 percent to 43 percent. Interestingly enough, Oregon is the same state Biden won by 16 points in 2020 but is now underwater by 17 points, 40 percent to 57 percent on the RSLC’s poll. Additionally, only 42 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for someone supporting Biden’s agenda, while the majority (51 percent) said they would prefer to vote for someone who would push back.

The polling data in Maine found that Democrats were only slightly leading on the state legislative generic ballot by one point and with that specific poll’s 3.99 percent margin of error. The generic Democrats led slightly with 48 percent compared to the 47 percent that a generic Republican garnered. However, the independent respondents favored Republicans by five points.

The Maine polling also found that Biden’s “image” in the state is also underwater, with only 45 percent finding him favorable as a majority (52 percent) viewed him negatively. The top issue for the Maine respondents was addressing the cost of living. And the economic agenda Maine Democrats have pursued appears to not agree with the respondents as well. There was 69 percent of the Maine respondents said they are less likely to vote for a state legislative candidate who supported legislation to raise the gas tax and the cost of home heating oil, while 65 percent also said they are less likely to vote for a candidate for state legislature who voted to hike health care costs.

The polling data in Washington also found that the state Republicans are within striking distance on the generic legislative ballot ahead of November as the generic Republicans are within two points of the Democrats on the generic ballot, 46 percent to 48 percent, as within the specific poll’s 3.99 percent margin of error.

The elected Democrats and Biden lack favorability in Washington. Elected Democrats in the state legislature are underwater by seven points, 42 percent to 49 percent. Additionally, Biden had a “dismal image rating” of 43 percent, while a majority (55 percent) had a negative view of him. In fact, only 45 percent of the respondents said they would support a candidate who supports Biden’s agenda, while 48 percent said they would support someone who enacts opposite policies to push back on Biden.

The poll also found that Washingtonians’ top issues for the state government are to focus on addressing the cost of living and combating violent crime and public safety. Due to this, the Democrats’ radical agenda in the state is shown to be unpopular with the respondents. A majority (64 percent) of the respondents were less likely to vote for a candidate who voted for a tax increase that was later ruled unconstitutional, and a majority (63 percent) also said they are less likely to vote for someone who voted for legislation that law enforcement leaders say “could put the public and police officers in jeopardy.”

Romeo also references the national battleground survey the RLSC did last month, reported on by Breitbart News, which showed following the Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe v. Wade after ruling on the Dobbs case would not help the Democrats win over the support of voters in the November election, as they hoped.

Via Breitbart News:

As the poll was taken on Saturday morning, in the peak time after the Dobbs ruling, the RSLC feels confident there has been no change from their January survey. “The results affirm that state Republicans remain on offense this year, as they will continue to run campaigns focused on serving as the counterweight to President Biden’s failing economic policies,” the memo stated.

…

Additionally, on the generic ballot, Republican state legislative candidates slightly lead Democrats, 47 percent to 45 percent. In fact, among those surveyed, 48 percent said they would prefer a Republican candidate who would act as a check and balance Biden and his policies versus 44 percent who would prefer having a Democrat who supports the president and his policies.

While abortion is an issue the respondents seemed to care about, it was nowhere close to being a topline issue for voters. Not even close, even after the Dobbs ruling. Instead, over half of the respondents cared about the economy as an issue.

“We did a national battleground survey, that kind of went through all our battlegrounds all across the country and aggregated them,” Romeo explained. “When we tested the Republican policy solution to inflation, so cutting taxes, reducing regulations supporting small business, versus the Democrat solution, which is no higher taxes on the wealthy, more regulations, voters overwhelmingly chose that Republican solution.”

For the national battleground survey, when respondents were asked which issues were most important, 56 percent said either the high cost of living/inflation, the economy in general, or unemployment/jobs in comparison. In comparison, only eight percent said abortion. Even crime polled one percent higher than abortion:

• High cost of living/inflation: 37%
• Economy in general: 16%
• Crime/Violence: 9%
• Abortion: 8%
• Environment/Climate Change: 7%
• Guns: 7%
• Immigration: 6%
• Voting Rights: 5%
• Unemployment/jobs: 3%
• Education: 3%

Romeo concluded that the national battleground poll means that “Republicans are right on the policy of voters trusting them, and they just need to continue sticking to that message,” noting that “it’s going to be a big, big year for Republicans.”

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at jbliss@breitbart.com or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.