Poll: GOP Holds Same Generic Ballot Lead as Week Before Roe Overturned

A Raaumessen Reports poll reveals that a generic Republican candidate holds the same 5-point lead over a generic Democrat candidate as the week before the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

The poll, published Friday, shows that 47 percent of respondents would cast a ballot for a Republican candidate if the midterm elections were held when they were surveyed. Conversely, 42 percent of those surveyed would back a Democrat.

The five-point differential is the same as a generic Congressional ballot poll released by Rasmussen Reports, the week before Roe was overturned, where 46 percent said they would support a Republican Congressional candidate, while a generic Democrat candidate drew 41 percent of the vote.

Granted, the lead for a generic Republican did expand to 48-40 in the Rasmussen Reports generic poll released on June 24. The same day, the ruling of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case came down, overturning Roe v. Wade and making abortion an issue for state legislatures to decide, which very well could explain the minor dip from an eight-point lead to a five-point lead week over week.

In the latest poll, Rasmussen Reports noted that Republicans are ahead primarily due to a 15-point lead among the independent demographic, as 44 percent of respondents without a party affiliation said they would vote for a Republican candidate. In comparison, 29 percent of independents said they would cast a ballot for a generic Democrat.

When referenced with last week’s findings, the poll shows no change in point differential among independent voters as 45 percent of the demographic would back a generic Republican, while 30 percent of voters would elect a generic Democrat. On June 18, Republicans held a 14-point advantage among independents, so the lead among independents has expanded and held on the heels of the Dobbs decision.

The current poll also shows that 62 percent of black Americans would vote Democrat while 23 percent would support a Republican. In terms of other minorities, 42 percent stated they would vote for a GOP candidate, which is a point higher than the 41 percent who would back a Democrat.

The survey was conducted from June 26-30 and sampled 2,500 likely voters in the United States and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus two percent.