Poll: Donald Trump Leads Joe Biden in Potential 2024 Matchup

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 30: Former president of the United States Donald Trump gives a
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Wendell Husebo

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in a potential 2024 matchup, according to a McLaughlin & Associates poll released Friday.

The poll asked, “If the general election for President were held today, would you be more likely to vote for Donald Trump, the Republican candidate or Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate?”

Trump polled at 49 percent, while Biden slipped into the mid-40s at 44 percent, five points behind Trump. Seven percent were undecided.

Trump also bested potential 2024 Republican primary candidates. The poll asked, “Thinking ahead to the 2024 Republican primary election for President, if that election were held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?”

Trump received 59 percent of the vote, while Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) only received 15 percent, a 44 percent differential. Former Vice President Mike Pence came in third place with seven percent.

The poll showed that if Trump decides to not run in 2024, DeSantis leads the potential field with 32 percent. Pence was marked with 17, and Donald Trump Jr. was polled in third at 12 percent.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis listens to a speaker at a press conference at Sam’s Club in Ocala, where he signed into law more than $1.2 billion in tax relief for Floridians, the largest tax relief package in Florida’s history. In an effort to combat inflation, taxes will be eliminated for varying periods of time on goods including fuel, children’s books, diapers, and home improvement items. (Photo by Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis listens to a speaker at a press conference at Sam’s Club in Ocala, where he signed into law more than $1.2 billion in tax relief for Floridians, the largest tax relief package in Florida’s history (Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images).

Trump’s polling lead over Biden is not surprising. Multiple polls have shown Biden behind Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head: here, here, here, here, and here.

As for Biden’s 2024 run, 50 percent said Vice President Kamala Harris is “likely” to become president before Biden’s first term is up. Only 40 percent said it was unlikely Harris would assume the presidency. Ten percent refused to answer.

Vice President Kamala Harris, left, and Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei, (unseen) attend a news conference, Monday, June 7, 2021, at the National Palace in Guatemala City. Harris on Monday, Dec. 13, 2021, is announcing $1.2 billion in commitments from international businesses to support the economies and social infrastructure of Central American nations, as she works to address what the White House terms the “root causes” of migration to the U.S. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

Vice President Kamala Harris (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

But the poll also showed Harris would only win five percent of the vote if the 2024 Democrat primary was held today, placing fourth overall, while Biden claimed 23 percent of the vote. If Biden does not run for reelection, Harris’s number increased to 13 percent but remained behind Michelle Obama by six points.

The poll sampled 1,000 voters from June 17-22. No margin of error was provided.

Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter and Gettr @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.

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