Poll: Republican Schmidt Leads Democrat Kelly in Kansas Governor's Race

Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R) holds a narrow lead over Gov. Laura Kelly (D) in the Kansas governor’s race, according to an internal GOP polling memo published Monday.

The poll, conducted by WPA Intelligence on behalf of attorney general candidate Kris Kobach, found Schmidt with a four-point lead over Kelly, garnering 47 percent support compared to Kelly’s 43 percent. Ten percent of respondents said they were undecided.

Schmidt is the presumptive Republican nominee for governor who is hoping to unseat Kelly, who is widely viewed as vulnerable in a red state that former President Donald Trump won by about 15 points in 2020. Schmidt has earned high-profile endorsements in his gubernatorial pursuit, including from Trump, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and former Gov. Jeff Colyer.

Kobach, a former secretary of state in Kansas, is hoping to fill Schmidt’s seat as attorney general. The poll results found Kobach with a wide lead in the primary field, coming in 40 points ahead of his closest competitor.

Kobach received 52 percent support, while Kellie Warren received 12 percent and Tony Mattivi received seven percent. Twenty-eight percent of respondents said they were undecided.

The primary poll was conducted among 518 likely Republican primary voters from April 18 to 20.

In a hypothetical general election matchup, Kobach bested likely Democrat candidate Chris Mann, a former police officer and county prosecutor, by three points. Kobach received 44 percent support compared to Mann’s 41 percent, while 15 percent of respondents said they were undecided.

Kobach, an immigration hawk who ran a competitive race against Kelly in 2018 and was defeated by about five points, put out a statement from his campaign contending he was the “best prepared” candidate for the attorney general role.

“In fact, he is in federal court today defending military personnel at Wichita’s McConnell Air Force Base against the illegal actions of the Biden Administration,” campaign consultant J.R. Claeys added in the statement. “While his opponents in the Republican primary argue that Kobach is too conservative to win a general election, the polling shows that is not true. None of Kris Kobach’s primary opponents receive a larger vote share in the general election.”

The general election poll was conducted among 500 likely voters April 26 to 27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.