A globalist climate change-focused organization in the United Kingdom has issued an analysis that claims rich countries should be the first to drop the harvesting of all fossil fuels by 2034 in order to keep the global warming cap at 1.5 degrees Celsius. This would give poor countries more time to divest of oil and gas.
Agence France-Presse reported on the analysis from Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, which is deeply involved in the United Nation’s efforts to regulate energy around the globe in the name of so-called global warming:
Countries such as South Sudan, the Republic of Congo and Gabon have little economic revenue apart from oil and gas production. By contrast, wealthy nations that are major producers would remain rich even if fossil fuel income were removed.
Oil and gas revenue, for example, contribute eight percent to U.S. [GDP], but the country’s GDP per capita would still be about $60,000 — second highest in the world among oil and gas producing nations — without it, according to the report.
For a 50/50 chance of limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5C, 19 countries in which per capita GDP would remain above $50,000 without oil and gas revenue must end production by 2034.
Aside from the United States, countries that meet that standard include Norway, Britain, Canada, Australia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Fourteen other countries, described in the analysis as “high capacity” nations where per capita GDP would be about $28,000 without income from oil and gas, must halt oil and gas by 2039, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan.
The next group of countries — China, Brazil, and Mexico — would need to end output by 2043, followed by Indonesia, Iran, and Egypt by 2045.
Extremely poor countries like Iraq, Libya, and Angola could keep producing oil and gas until 2050.
“We use the GDP per capita that remains once we’ve removed the revenue from oil and gas as an indicator of capacity,” lead author Kevin Anderson, a professor of energy and climate change at the University of Manchester, told AFP.
“We calculated emissions phase-out dates for all of them consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goals,” Anderson said. “We found that wealthy countries need to be at zero oil and gas production by 2034.”
The analysis, dubbed Phaseout Pathways for Fossil Fuel Production, said there are 88 countries in the world that produce oil and gas.
According to the federal Energy Information Administration (EIA), petroleum and natural gas will remain the most-consumed sources of energy in the United States through 2050, even as alternative energies are steadily growing.
Follow Penny Starr on Twitter