Voters in Texas will set the tone for the beginning of the 2022 midterm election cycle with the first regularly scheduled primaries taking place Tuesday.
Voters will decide if GOP Gov. Greg Abbott will represent the party again, or if he will face a runoff later in the spring, and will decide similar fates for Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Key congressional races throughout Texas will also help determine the future of the GOP, with proxy wars playing out in several races, particularly in the eighth congressional district in a battle between Morgan Luttrell and Christian Collins.
Rep. Van Taylor (R-TX) is another one to watch, as a gnarly sex scandal smacked him right before the election–but it may have been too late to make a difference. How Taylor fares–and whether he can avoid a runoff–remains to be seen, but is one of the bigger stories to watch on Tuesday night.
Democrats will likely nominate former Rep. Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke as their gubernatorial candidate, and also face intra-party battles in key congressional districts, especially that of Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX). Cuellar is aiming to hold back a primary challenge from socialist Jessica Cisneros.
Perhaps more important than any particular race, though, is how demographic shifts–specifically among Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley, who have been swinging hard towards the GOP in recent years–play out. Whether that trend continues, intensifies, or slows, is something to watch.
What’s more, former President Donald Trump has more than 30 endorsements on the line in Texas on Tuesday. While it is as yet unclear, Trump very well could go undefeated–though some of his candidates could end up in runoffs. How powerful the Trump endorsement remains with him out of office is a key factor on the line in Texas this evening as well.
In addition to all that, it is impossible to ignore that Democrat President Joe Biden and his ally House Speaker Nancy Pelosi–another leftist Democrat–scheduled Biden’s first State of the Union address during the timeframe in which the results will be streaming in from Texas. Perhaps that is to try to keep the subject off the midterms as long as possible, as the next scheduled primaries are not until May, especially as Biden’s approval rating lags significantly and his agenda is halted in Congress despite Democrat majorities in both chambers.
Follow along here for live updates as the results pour in from across Texas after the polls close at 7 p.m. local time in Texas–8 p.m. eastern time.
UPDATE 12:44 a.m. ET
Monica De La Cruz, a Trump-backed Latina Republican in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, has won the GOP nomination in her district–one Republicans are expected to take from Democrats this year. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX), an embattled Democrat facing concerns over a Chinese bank account, switched districts this cycle to run in a more reliably blue district instead of for reelection in this seat. If De La Cruz wins as expected in November, this will be the first time in this district’s more than a century of existence that it has ever gone Republican–a remarkable turn of events for a trend whereby Hispanic voters in the region are increasingly ditching Democrats for Republicans.
UPDATE 12:34 a.m. ET
According to the New York Times, Taylor has now fallen back under 50 percent–with 49.9 percent–with about 92 percent reporting. This one is going to come down the wire, and he could end up in a runoff where he would have to address the ISIS bride affair story much more directly than he has–which to date has not seen any response from the congressman.
UPDATE 12:05 a.m. ET
In the third district, Rep. Van Taylor (R-TX) is slipping again and now just above the threshold of a runoff–and may fall below it.
This comes after an explosive sex scandal that Breitbart News published earlier this week about the congressman having allegedly paid $5,000 in cash to silence a former “ISIS bride” with whom he allegedly had an affair. While Breitbart News can assure our readers we printed it as fast as we could verify it, some are wondering if that story had come sooner whether Taylor would be slipping further:
Whatever ends up happening here–whether Taylor survives this without a runoff or not–the congressman is probably going to have to answer for his conduct when he gets back to the Capitol. And more broadly, Republicans are probably going to have to deal with this one way or another–meaning if he ends up in a runoff at least there is another option to rally behind instead of him.
UPDATE 11:37 p.m. ET
Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report predicts that Attorney General Ken Paxton will face George P. Bush–a return of the Bush family political dynasty–in a May 24 runoff. Trump endorsed Paxton, and Paxton leads the race right now so it is not a loss for Trump but not a win either. In any event, Trump remains undefeated–and Paxton’s reelection battle will drag out for at least another two and a half months into late May:
UPDATE 11:10 p.m. ET
In the 28th district Democrat primary, with 61 percent reporting according to the New York Times, the socialist Jessica Cisneros is back out in front and over 50 percent–at 50.8 percent–while Cuellar has slipped down to 44.3 percent. There is still a long way to go here, but if this margin holds and Cisneros stays above 50 percent she may avoid a runoff and defeat Cuellar now.
UPDATE 11:01 p.m. ET
As Breitbart News reported moments ago, former President Donald Trump and his allies are in high spirits as he appears headed for an undefeated night in endorsements in Texas. Trump released a statement just now celebrating his electoral victories in the Lone Star State.
“Big night in Texas!” Trump said. “All 33 candidates that were Trump endorsed have either won their primary election or are substantially leading in the case of a runoff. Governor Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick have won in a landslide. Thank you, and congratulations to all!”
UPDATE 10:37 p.m. ET
In the 28th district Democrat primary, the chances of a runoff are rapidly increasing as both Cuellar and Cisneros are under 50 percent now in the tight race:
A runoff here would be a disaster for national Democrats as it would cause a long and protracted fight in public for the next two and a half months.
UPDATE 10:33 p.m. ET
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a Republican, easily won his primary as well, with the Associated Press confirming his victory Tuesday evening. That’s another win for Trump, who backed Patrick in his reelection bid.
UPDATE 10:25 p.m. ET
Trump world is ecstatic right now as every one of Trump’s 33 endorsed candidates in Texas GOP primaries is currently leading their races. Some may end up in runoffs, but if this picture holds when results are final Trump will have gone undefeated in the first primaries of 2022.
UPDATE 9:50 p.m. ET
Rep. Randy Weber (R-TX), a Trump-backed Congressman, has won his primary outright:
UPDATE 9:24 p.m. ET
Trump may go undefeated in endorsements–even if Paxton ends up in a runoff, a real possibility–depending on how all these races shake out. Trump’s endorsements, sources close to the former president told Breitbart News, are performing well everywhere in Texas–and this may be a huge night for him. He not only endorsed in statewide and federal office races but also in some lower-level state races. This is a narrative worth tracking as it will demonstrate his power inside the party in months and years to come.
UPDATE 9:21 p.m. ET
With 57 percent reporting in the third congressional district GOP primary, Taylor is back over 50 percent but barely with just 51.5 percent. This one is closer than he would like.
Meanwhile, in the 28th district Democrat primary with 52 percent reporting, socialist Cisneros’s lead is down to just a few percent as she has 50,8 percent now and Cuellar–the incumbent–is at 44.6 percent. This race could head to a runoff possibly:
UPDATE 9:15 p.m. ET
Greg Abbott has won the GOP primary without a runoff, clearly defeating challengers Huffines and West, and will face O’Rourke in the general election:
UPDATE 9:04 p.m. ET
Beto O’Rourke has, unsurprisingly, won the Democrat nomination for governor and will likely face Abbott in November:
UPDATE 9:01 p.m. ET
While he’s not in great shape, it’s not all bad for Cuellar in that all-important Democrat primary and he might bounce back:
UPDATE 8:56 p.m. ET
Huffines is essentially admitting he lost the election and does not have a chance to get into a runoff with Abbott, in a statement that says he will not challenge the results:
UPDATE 8:49 p.m. ET
Down in the eighth congressional district GOP primary, Morgan Luttrell is also cruising and may win outright on Tuesday. With 50 percent reporting, Luttrell has 54 percent of the vote–and Christian Collins, the House Freedom Caucus-backed candidate, has just 23.3 percent. This is almost the proxy war that wasn’t–some national personalities and forces tried to make it into one, but in reality the candidates did not have much policy daylight between them.
UPDATE 8:46 p.m. ET
With 40 percent now reporting, Abbott is cruising with just under 70 percent of the vote–68.8 percent–up against his primary challengers. It is very hard to see Abbott not outright winning without a runoff tonight unless something drastically changes.
UPDATE 8:43 p.m. ET
Cuellar is in very serious trouble:
Meanwhile, in the third district, Rep. Van Taylor (R-TX) with 5 percent reporting is under 50 percent at 46.4 percent–it’s still early there, but he could be headed for trouble.
UPDATE 8:23 p.m. ET
Down in Texas’s 28th congressional district, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) appears to from early returns be in very serious trouble. The Democrat trails his socialist primary challenger Jessica Cisneros significantly in early returns. With 22 percent reporting, Cisneros has 71.8 percent of the vote while Cuellar is down at just 21.7 percent. This could spell major problems for national Democrats if Cuellar loses his primary.
UPDATE 8:19 p.m. ET
The GOP Attorney General race is a very different story, with just 7 percent reporting according to the New York Times. Incumbent Ken Paxton is under 50 percent with just 43.8 percent, while challenger Neil P. Bush is at 21.9 percent. Other challengers Eva Guzman and Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) are in the mix too. If Paxton does not get 50 percent plus one vote, he would be forced into a runoff in May. It’s still early but warning signs are suggesting this one could drag out.
UPDATE 8:17 p.m. ET
The first results are now in from the GOP governor primary and Abbott has a commanding lead as well, at 68.6 percent with 15 percent of precincts reporting according to the New York Times. Challengers Don Huffines and Allen West, while both over 10 percent each, are way below where they needed to be in the early returns to force Abbott into a runoff. This would need to change significantly for Abbott to be in trouble.
UPDATE 8:12 p.m. ET
According to the New York Times, the first results are in in the Democrat primary for governor, where O’Rourke has a commanding lead. With 9 percent reporting, O’Rourke has more than 90 percent of the vote–unsurprising since he did not face a serious challenge for the Democrat nomination.
UPDATE 8:04 p.m. ET
The polls are closed in most of Texas and the first results should start trickling in soon as mail ballots are counted and reported first. Since these are partisan primaries, do not expect a mirage whereby different voting habits of different parties–Republicans voting in person versus Democrats voting by mail–play out in the reporting of these results.
UPDATE 7:55 p.m. ET
Minutes away from the polls closing, Gov. Abbott makes a last second push for more votes:
The polls close in most of Texas at 8 p.m. eastern time–but in El Paso and Hudspeth counties they remain open until later. Results are expected to be mostly final and reported in the next few hours by around 1 a.m. Eastern.