Poll: Republicans Lead Democrats in Generic Congressional Ballot

Republicans hold a double-digit lead over Democrats in a generic congressional ballot, a Rasmussen Reports survey released Friday found.

The survey asked respondents, “If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate?”

Half said they would vote for the Republican on the ballot, compared to 37 percent who said they would support the Democrat and four percent who said “some other candidate”. Nine percent remain unsure, although that is outside the survey’s +/- 2 percent margin of error:

Predictably, most Republicans, 89 percent, said they would support the Republican candidate, while 77 percent of Democrats said they would support the Democrat. Notably, more Democrats, 17 percent, said they would vote for the Republican candidate than the other way around, as just 7 percent of Republicans said they would support the Democrat. 

A plurality of independent voters said they would vote for the Republican on the ballot, leading the Democrat by double digits — 46 percent to 24 percent. Ten percent said they would support “some other candidate,” but one in five remain unsure. 

According to Rasmussen Reports, “The 13-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 22-point advantage among independents.”

The survey was taken February 13-17, 2022, among 2,500 likely U.S. voters. 

Recent surveys spell trouble for Democrats moving into the midterms, as they show a similar trend. A CNN survey released last week showed Republicans with a lead on the generic congressional ballot, 44 percent to 43 percent. However, that reflects a six-point drop for Democrats from CNN’s November survey. 

Similarly, a Trafalgar Group survey released this week showed Republicans leading Democrats by double digits in a generic congressional ballot, 54.4 percent to 41.9 percent. 

Some prominent conservatives suspect that the sudden decisions of several blue state leaders — such as easing mask restrictions — has everything to do with politics, as they see Democrats facing an uphill battle ahead of the midterm elections.