The odds of former President Donald Trump being reelected in 2024 are increasing, as are the odds of Republicans gaining back a majority in both the House and Senate, according to US-Bookies.com.
A spokesperson for US-Bookies said Trump has “gradually made his way to the top of the political betting markets, while the top Democratic challengers’ odds to win have weakened.” The spokesperson noted that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has “also seen improvements in the presidential betting markets, making a Republican win seem more likely.”
According to the data, over the past month, Trump’s reelection odds “shifted from 7/2 (22.2% implied probability) to 3/1 (25%),” according to a press release, walking through the data. President Biden’s odds, however, have decreased in the same time frame, going from “4/1 (20% implied probability) to 5/1 (16.7%) since mid-October.”
President Joe Biden walks with Vice President Kamala Harris after speaking on updated guidance on face mask mandates and COVID-19 response, in the Rose Garden of the White House, Thursday, May 13, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Additionally:
During the same time, Kamala Harris’ odds also worsened from 11/2 (15.4%) to 13/2 (13.3%). Ron DeSantis’ odds improved from 11/1 (8.3%) to 8/1 (11.1%).
Pete Buttigieg is the only Democrat whose odds have gradually improved since last month. His odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election shifted from 40/1 (2.4% implied probability) to 28/1 (3.4%) since October 6. Buttigieg now follows Mike Pence, whose odds worsened from 16/1 (5.9%) to 25/1 (3.8%) in the same timeframe. Pence follows Nikki Haley, whose odds also worsened from 12/1 (7.7%) to 18/1 (5.3%).
U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) talk to reporters after a bipartisan group of Senators and White House officials came to an agreement over the Biden administrations proposed infrastructure plan at the U.S. Capitol on June 23, 2021, in Washington, DC. (Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images)
The trends seem to be in favor of Republicans from a congressional standpoint as well, as the odds of the GOP retaking both the House and Senate have increased:
Since November 5, Republicans’ odds to win majority control of Senate the improved slightly from 9/20 (69% implied probability) to 4/9 (69.2%). Democrats’ odds worsened from 15/8 (34.8%) to 21/10 (32.3%). As for the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans’ odds to win majority control after the 2022 Midterms improved from 2/9 (81.8%) to 1/5 (83.3%), while Democrats’ worsened from 18/5 (21.7%) to 19/5 (20.8%).
Speaking to Breitbart News Saturday, former Trump aide Sam Nunberg said Trump is “certainly, certainly considering” a presidential run and said he personally believes he will make the leap.
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