Poll: Arizona Democrats Turn Against Kyrsten Sinema, Would Back Primary Challenge

Democrats are turning against moderate Democrat Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in the 2024 primary, close to three-quarters expressing the desire to replace her with another Democrat, according to a Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) released Monday.

While the survey found Sinema’s favorability nearly split among all respondents, 42 percent viewing her favorably and 45 percent viewing her unfavorably, she tends to be more popular among Republicans than members of her own party, who seek to oust her.

The Arizona senator has a net favorable view among Republicans, 45 percent to 42 percent, but her numbers with Democrats are in the negatives, as 42 percent view her favorably. Forty-seven percent of Democrats, however, view her unfavorably. Mike Noble, OHPI chief of research, warned that the waning popularity among Democrats “could prove fatal in 2024.”

When asked whom they prefer — Sinema, a Republican, or a Democrat other than Sinema to serve as senator — just more than a quarter of Democrats, 26 percent, chose Sinema. The vast majority, 72 percent, chose a Democrat other than the incumbent.

Overall, however, a slightly plurality, 38 percent, said a Republican, followed by 36 percent who said a Democrat other than Sinema, and 26 percent who chose the sitting senator:

Senator Sinema also currently trails in hypothetical primary matchups. Against Phoenix Rep. Ruben Gallego, 47% said that they would support Gallego while 24% said that they would support Sinema. Rep. Greg Stanton, Sinema’s successor in Congress, leads his predecessor by an identical margin in a hypothetical primary match-up. Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Kathy Hoffman also bests Sinema by 20 points.

One of the main frustrations among Democrats is Sinema’s refusal to oppose the filibuster, the survey added. 

The survey, taken November 1 – 8, 2021, among 713 Arizona registered voters, has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent. 

Sinema has been at the center of controversies over her opposition to certain aspects of the infrastructure bill during the negotiation process. Last month, for example, it was revealed that Sinema opposed many of the tax increases proposed to pay for the $1.9 trillion infrastructure bill after opposing the original $3.5 trillion proposal.

The next day, reports surfaced indicating that five advisers ditched Sinema for opposing President Biden’s multitrillion-dollar agenda. 

“You have become one of the principal obstacles to progress, answering to big donors rather than your own people,” the group of advisers wrote. 

However, late last month, Sinema suggested that she was on board with the “rebranded” $1.85 trillion reconciliation bill, calling it “significant progress.”

Throughout it all, Sinema experienced harassment from those on her own side, as a video of left-wing activists harassing her in a bathroom went viral: