Poll: Majority Believe Middle East War More Likely Now than One Year Ago

A majority of likely U.S. voters believe a war in the Middle East is more likely now than it was one year ago, a Rasmussen Reports survey released Monday found.

The survey, taken May 13 and May 16 among 1,000 likely U.S. voters, asked respondents, “Is a major war in the Middle East more likely or less likely now than it was a year ago?”

A majority, or 54 percent, said it is “more likely,” followed by 27 percent who said “about the same,” and 14 percent who said “less likely.” Opinions vary on party lines, as 69 percent of Republicans say it is “more likely” compared to a plurality of Democrats, 39 percent, who agree.

Additionally, 83 percent of likely voters say American’s relationship with Israel is either “very” or “somewhat” important to U.S. national security. Of those, a majority, or 51 percent, say it is “very” important:

Republicans consider the U.S.-Israel relationship more important than do Democrats or voters not affiliated with either major party. Sixty-six percent (66%) of GOP voters say America’s relationship with Israel is Very Important to U.S. national security, compared to just 38% of Democrats and 49% of unaffiliated voters.

The survey also found a plurality, 47 percent, deeming the Biden administration’s policies toward Israel “worse” than the Trump administration’s policies. One-fourth say it is “better,” 17 percent say it is “about the same,” and 11 percent remain unsure. Republicans are far more likely to consider the Biden administration’s policy worse than the previous administration’s, with 71 percent saying it is “worse” compared to 21 percent of Democrats who agree.

The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3 percent.

The survey comes as tensions continue to arise in the Middle East between Palestinian Hamas terrorists and Israel.

On Monday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) blasted Democrat colleagues seeking to blame both sides for the rise in conflict, contending such a view “downplays the responsibility the terrorists have for initiating this conflict in the first place, and suggests Israelis are not entitled to defend themselves against on-going rocket barrages.”

The Israeli military has continued to unleash on terrorists, dropping a heavy wave of airstrikes late Monday into early Tuesday, targeting Hamas security sites and destroying terror tunnels.