Memo: Nearly 50 Opportunities to Win 5 Districts for House GOP Majority

The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) wrote an analysis Monday which found nearly 50 opportunities to win five districts for Republicans to gain a majority in the House during the 2022 midterm elections.

CLF President Dan Conston wrote that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) had targeted nearly 50 seats held by Democrats to help win the House majority. Given that Republicans only need to flip a net of five seats to regain the House majority, the party has a strong chance of taking back the majority during the 2022 midterm elections.

Conston wrote that Democrats hold seven Trump seats and that 24 Democrats received only 52 percent of the vote or less during the 2020 congressional elections, making the Democrats’ job of holding their majority a “difficult task.”

The CLF president found that by targeting rural and working-class districts, key suburban districts, and districts with heavy Latino and Asian minority populations, Republicans have a strong chance of taking back the House.

“Six of the seven Trump-won districts held by Democrats fit” the first group, “as do an additional ten districts that Biden narrowly won in 2020,” Conston wrote.

Republicans can target Reps. Ron Kind in Wisconsin’s third district, Jared Golden in Maine’s second district, and Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania’s eighth district to win over rural and working-class districts.

CLF contended that Republicans outperformed expectations in key swing suburban districts and that Republicans won 18 out of the 25 districts in which CLF invested resources.

Republicans also made considerable advances in districts with major Latino and Asian populations, flipping four seats with high representations of those demographic groups in 2020.

Democrats also face major headaches as many swing district Democrats, such as Reps. Cindy Axne (D-IA), Tim Ryan (D-OH), and Conor Lamb (D-PA), look to run for higher offices.

“It’s probably more appealing to run for higher office than face likely defeat in Pelosi’s House,” Conston wrote.

Conston noted that, since WWII, presidents had lost 27 seats on average in their first midterm election.

“Only twice in the last 100 years has the President’s party picked up seats in a midterm,” Conston emphasized. “With a hard-left single-party agenda coming out of Washington, there is no reason to believe the backlash against President Biden would be any different.”