Florida Poll: Donald Trump 50%, Joe Biden 48%

The presidential race in battleground Florida is tightening, with polls showing a virtual dead heat in the Sunshine State as Election Day draws closer.

A SurveyMonkey/Tableau/Axios survey released this week, fielded September 24 to October 21, showed President Donald Trump leading former Vice President Joe Biden with 50 percent to 48 percent:

However, a St. Pete Polls survey released this week showed Biden up in the crucial swing state, leading by two percentage points, or 49 percent to Trump’s 47 percent:

The St. Pete Polls survey, taken October 21-22 among 2,527 likely Florida voters, has a margin of error of +/- two percent, indicating a statistical tie.

Less than two percent of those surveyed in the St. Pete Poll said they remained undecided, and while more Biden supporters said they already voted (58 percent to Trump’s 39 percent), 60 percent of those who chose Trump said they plan to vote. Thirty-five percent said the same for Biden. That could largely explain the Democrats’ lead in total voting in Florida. Because of an increase in mail-in voting, Democrats currently lead Republicans in total ballots cast by just over 427,500. Republicans, however, are continuing to outpace Democrats in early voting, 641,324 to the Democrats’ 499,802.

The final RealClearPolitics average in 2016 had Trump winning Florida by less than half of a single percentage point. He exceeded expectations, winning the state by 1.2 percent. A Trafalgar Group survey released last week showed Trump leading in the Sunshine State by 2.3 percent.