Republicans Surging in Heated Battle for Control of the Senate

Senate Republican candidates across battleground states either lead or are within or close to the margin of error in the hotly contested fight to control the Senate, according to several AARP polls released Thursday.

Eight Senate races serve as the most critical elections for Republican control of the Senate majority. The Senate Republicans running include:

• Martha McSally (AZ)
• Cory Gardner (CO)
• David Perdue (GA)
• Kelly Loeffler (GA)
• Joni Ernst (IA)
• Susan Collins (ME)
• Steve Daines (MT)
• Thom Tillis (NC)

AARP commissioned polls across 11 battleground states, surveying likely voters, especially those age 50 and older.

The polls found that many of the races for control of the U.S. Senate remain close as Senate Republicans play defense going into the November elections. The polls’ findings include:

• Arizona: Democrat Mark Kelly leads McSally by three points, 48 to 45 percent. The poll’s 2.5 percent margin of error makes the race near a statistical dead heat. Kelly also leads McSally 50 to 46 percent among voters age 50 and older.
• Colorado: Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) leads Gardner 51 to 46 percent. However, Gardner and Hickenlooper struck a dead heat among voters age 50 and older.
• Georgia: Democrat Jon Ossoff leads Perdue 48 to 47 percent; however, this remains within the poll’s 3.6 percent margin of error. Perdue leads Ossoff 52 to 45 percent among voters age 50 and older.
• Georgia: In the race for Georgia’s special election, Loeffler leads at 24 percent, Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA) has 20 percent, Democrat Raphael Warnock has 19 percent, Democrat Matt Lieberman has ten percent, Democrat Ed Tarver has seven percent, and 20 percent of voters remain undecided.
• Iowa: Ernst leads Iowa Democrat Theresa Greenfield 50 to 45 percent.
• Maine: Democrat Sara Gideon leads Collins 44 to 43 percent, which is well within the poll’s 3.3 percent margin of error.
• Montana: Daines leads Gov. Steve Bullock (D) 50 to 47 percent, which is within the poll’s 3.4 percent margin of error.
• North Carolina: Tillis trails Democrat Cal Cunningham 42 to 39 percent.

The series of polls released by AARP show an upsurge for conservative candidates across the country.

Stephen Lawson, the campaign communications director for Loeffler, said in a statement on Thursday:

Republicans control 53 seats in the Senate against 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats. This means that Democrats need to gain a net four seats to retake the Senate.

As Senate Republican and Democrat candidates continue to vie for control of the Senate, Nancy LeaMond, an AARP executive vice president, said in a statement that the battle for the Senate will be a game of “inches.”

LeaMond said:

To borrow a phrase from Al Pacino in the football film Any Given Sunday, this year’s Presidential race is a game of inches. The election will be decided in a handful of battleground states, and AARP’s survey results show that either candidate can win. One thing that isn’t in doubt is that 50+ voters will cast the majority of ballots. So, candidates need to address their concerns if they want to get across the goal line.

AARP commissioned Fabrizio Ward and Hart Research to conduct the polls between August 30 and September 5. The polling firms surveyed 800 likely voters with an oversample of voters age 50 and older in each of the states. The margins of error are under four percentage points.