Analysis: Nixing Mail-In Voting Could Harm Montana Republicans in 2020 Elections

Several Montana counties have decided to opt out of mail-in voting ahead of the 2020 elections; however, doing so could harm many Republicans in contentious elections.

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D) issued a directive on August 6 for counties to conduct the November 3 general election through mail-in balloting as well as in-person voting. While most Montana counties have opted in favor of mail-in voting, many counties such as Broadwater, Carbon, Choteau, Fergus, Flathead, Lincoln, Mineral, Petroleum, Powder River, Powell, Richland, and Stillwater have opted for same-day voting only.

Analysis by Breitbart News comes as the Montana Republican Party, the Donald Trump campaign, the Republican National Committee (NRC), and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) have sued Bullock for allegedly violating the U.S. and Montana constitutions, and for rewriting Montana election law.

“The integrity of our elections now hangs in the balance as a result of the Governor’s actions, which forced a patchwork elections calendar on Montanans based on nothing more than the last three numbers of their zip code,” Montana GOP executive director Spenser Merwin said in a statement on Wednesday.

Although President Donald Trump and other prominent Republicans such as Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL), the ranking member of the House Administration Committee, remained concerned that mail-in voting may lead to voter fraud, former Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed told Breitbart News that mail-in voting could be done properly if a state were to set up enough measures to ensure voter integrity.

Montana’s first mail-in primary election in June set records for participation and with few hitches, according to local news reports.

Further, the mail-in voting primary election particularly helped rural Republicans voters break records in voter participation, even beating out record numbers in 2016.

Of the 658,764 registered voters during the Montana 2016 primary election, 293,548 voters participated in the election, making it a 45.25 voter participation percentage. And, in contrast, in 2020, of the 696,292 registered voters, 382,072 voters participated in the June primary, making it a 54.87 voter participation rate. This makes for a strong increase in voter participation.

Many counties, such as Flathead and Lincoln, that largely vote Republican over Democrat, also experienced higher turnout among Republicans compared to Democrats.

Over fifteen thousand Republicans voted in Flathead county’s Republican primary in 2016, and over 23,000 Flathead Montanans voted in 2020’s GOP primary. This marks a 53 percent increase over four years.

In contrast, nearly 8,000 Flathead Montanans voted in the Democrat primary in 2016, whereas roughly 10,000 Flathead Montanans voted in 2020’s Democrat primary, making this only a 37 percent increase.

In Lincoln County, roughly 3,600 Montanans voted in the 2016 Republican primary, whereas approximately 5,400 Republicans voted in the June 2020 primary election. This marks a 47 percent increase in Republican turnout in Lincoln County.

In comparison, roughly 1,580 Democrats voted in the 2016 primary election, and approximately 1,880 Democrats voted in the 2020 primary, making this only a 19 percent increase in Democrat turnout.

In just these two instances, Republican turnout has increased significantly compared to Democrats when the state expanded mail-in voting.

While Republican counties may oppose mail-in voting, they may be harming Republicans in close elections, such as Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), Matt Rosendale running for the state’s at-large congressional district, and Rep. Greg Gianforte’s (R-MT) bid for the governor.

Recent polling has shown a close election between Daines and Bullock, a virtual tie between Rosendale and Democrat Kathleen Williams, and that Gianforte leads Democrat Mike Cooney in the gubernatorial race.