Poll: Republican Scott Taylor Tied with Incumbent In Bid to Retake Swing House District

Former Rep. Scott Taylor (R-VA) is in a dead heat with freshman swing district Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA), according to a poll released Monday.

A poll conducted by the Tarrance Group on behalf of the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) found Taylor and Luria tied at 48 percent, with four percent of voters still undecided.

The survey also found that 51 percent of independent voters would vote for Taylor over Luria.

Further, 52 percent of voters have a more favorable image of Taylor, with only 36 percent of voters holding a negative view of the former congressman. In contrast, Luria has a 50 percent favorable rating and a 38 percent unfavorable rating.

Twenty-nine percent of voters strongly favor Taylor, while only 26 percent strongly favor Luria.

This is the second poll the CLF has released on battleground districts. The last CLF survey found that former NFL Superbowl champion Burgess Owens (R-UT) leads Rep. Ben McAdams (D-UT) by nine points or 43 to 34 percent.

Luria represents Virginia’s second congressional district, one of the 30 congressional districts President Donald Trump won during the 2016 presidential election but House Democrats flipped during the 2018 midterms. Republicans need a net gain of 17 seats to take back the House majority.

Luria defeated Taylor during the 2018 midterm elections by 2.3 percentage points.

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said during a press conference last week that Republicans have a strong opportunity to retake the majority.

“We only need 17 seats to win the majority, and Democrats have fewer members than they did when they started this out,” the California conservative said. “So, yeah, it’s going to be competitive, but I still believe that we have the opportunity to win the majority, and we’ll see that in November.”

The Tarrance Group surveyed 402 voters in Virginia’s second congressional district between July 14 and 16, and the survey has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

Sean Moran is a congressional reporter for Breitbart News. Follow him on Twitter @SeanMoran3.