A poll conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) found that New Mexico’s Second Congressional District race is in a dead heat between incumbent Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-NM) and GOP nominee Yvette Herrell.
The Tarrance Group conducted the poll on behalf of the NRCC and found that the race is tied between Herrell and Torres Small at 46 percentage points each, and that eight percent of New Mexico voters remain undecided.
“The race for the [New Mexico] 2nd district is highly competitive,” the Tarrance Group wrote in a memo to the NRCC.
The Tarrance Group also wrote that incumbent Torres-Small has “considerably more baggage” than Herrell going into the “last four months of the race.”
The polling group wrote:
- Currently, 43% of voters have a favorable image of Yvette Herrell, and only 28% are unfavorable.
- At the same time, Xochitl Torres Small as 44% favorable, but with a 39% unfavorable rating.
An incumbent under 50%, tied with the challenger, and nearly at a 1:1 favorable to unfavorable image is vulnerable.
New Mexico’s Second Congressional District is one of the key seats that could determine whether Republicans retake the House in 2020. The district was one of 13 congressional districts that President Donald Trump won during the 2016 presidential election by more than six percent but that House Democrats managed to flip during the 2018 midterm elections. Republicans only need to retake a net 17 seats to regain the House majority.
Torres-Small beat Herrell during the 2018 midterms by only 1.8 percentage points.
“Meanwhile, Yvette Herrell emerged from the Republican primary with an image stronger than how she ended the 2018 campaign. She is well positioned for a vigorous give and take against the Congresswoman this Fall,” the Tarrance Group concluded in its memo the NRCC.
The Tarrance Group polled 400 voters between July 7 and 9; the margin of error is 4.9 percentage points.
Sean Moran is a congressional reporter for Breitbart News. Follow him on Twitter @SeanMoran3.