Two Polls Show Majority of Registered Voters Oppose Impeachment

Two polls released this week show that a majority of registered voters in America now oppose the impeachment of President Trump and his removal from office.

One of those polls also shows that a majority of adults who live in 2016 swing counties oppose impeachment and removal by a seven point margin.

A Quinnipiac Poll released on Tuesday shows “[s]lightly more than half of all registered voters, 51 percent, think that President Trump should not be impeached and removed from office, while 45 percent say he should be impeached and removed.”

The summary of the poll concluded:

This compares to a November 26 poll in which 48 percent of voters said the president should not be impeached, while 45 percent said he should be. Today’s poll is the first time since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the inquiry that more than half of voters say that Trump should not be impeached.

A Monmouth University Poll released on Wednesday shows that 51 percent of registered voters oppose the impeachment of the president and his removal from office, while 44 percent support it. (See Question 4 on page 2 of the poll’s crosstabs, which are included in this document from Monmouth University, but are found after the nine page summary of the poll at the beginning of the document.)

The exact language of the question posed to respondents in the poll was: “Do you think President Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency, or not?”

The Monmouth University Poll results also provided details about opposition to impeachment at the county level based on 2016 presidential election results. (See Question 4 on page 2 of the poll’s crosstabs.)

In counties President Trump won by ten points or more, 63 percent of poll respondents (which includes both registered voters and adults who are not registered to vote) oppose impeachment of the president and his removal from office, while only 32 percent support impeachment.

In counties Hillary Clinton won by ten points or more, only 37 percent of poll respondents oppose impeachment of the president and his removal from office, while 58 percent support it.

Significantly, the majority of adult respondents in swing counties–those where neither President Trump nor Hillary Clinton won by a margin greater than ten points–oppose impeachment.

Fifty-one percent of swing county adults oppose impeachment of the president and his removal from office, while only 44 percent support it.

This latter swing county breakdown of public opinion is especially relevant in the days leading up to an anticipated floor vote on impeachment, currently expected to be held on the floor of the House of Representatives some time before next Friday, December 20.

As Breitbart News reported, 31 Democrats represent districts President Trump won in 2016, and more than a dozen more represent districts Hillary Clinton won by less than ten points in 2016.

The Monmouth University Poll of 903 adults, 838 of whom are registered voters and 65 of whom are not registered voters, was conducted between December 4 and December 8 and has a margin of error of 3.3 percent when all adults–registered voters and adults who are not registered voters– are included, and 3.4 percent when only registered voters are included.

Not surprisingly, when adults who are not registered voters are included, the percentage of Americans who oppose the president’s impeachment and removal from office drops slightly to 50 percent, while the percentage who support it increases slightly to 45 percent.

[NOTE: While 51 percent of registered voters oppose the impeachment of the president and his removal from office and 44 percent support it, 42 percent of adults who are not registered voters oppose the impeachment of the president and his removal from office and 52 percent support it.  (See Question 4 on page 2 of the poll’s crosstabs.)]

The demographics of the poll respondents were as follows: 26 percent were Republican, 30 percent were Democrat, and 43 percent were Independent.Thirty-one percent were age 18-34, 32 percent were 35-54, and 37 percent were over 55. Sixty-four percent were White, 12 percent were Black, 16 percent were Hispanic, and eight percent were Asian/Other.

“Opinion on impeachment has been rock steady since news of the Ukraine call first broke. Any small shifts we are seeing now are likely to be statistical noise,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in the statement accompanying the release of the poll.

Among adults (including both registered voters and adults over age 18 not registered to vote), 53 percent opposed impeachment of the president and removal from office in July 2017, while 41 percent supported it.

The Monmouth University crosstabs did not include historical data on opposition to impeachment broken down by registered voters, separate from the broader group that includes all adults.

Notably, the Quinnipiac Poll also showed President Trump trailing all of the leading Democratic candidates for president:

If the general election for president were being held today, 51 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Joe Biden, while 42 percent say they would vote for President Trump. When Trump is matched against other Democratic contenders the race remains in single digits:

– Bernie Sanders gets 51 percent, while Trump has 43 percent;
– Elizabeth Warren receives 50 percent and Trump gets 43 percent;
– Michael Bloomberg gets 48 percent to Trump’s 42 percent;
– Pete Buttigieg has 48 percent, while Trump receives 43 percent;
– Amy Klobuchar receives 47 percent, while Trump has 43 percent.

This compares to an October 8 poll, in which Biden beat Trump 51 – 40 percent, Sanders led Trump 49 – 42 percent, and Warren won against Trump 49 – 41 percent.

At this point in the 2016 election cycle, a December 2, 2015 Quinnipiac University national poll found that 47 percent of voters said that they would vote for the eventual Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, while 41 percent said that they would vote for eventual Republican nominee Donald Trump.

The Quinnipac Poll of 1,553 registered voters was conducted between December 4 and December 9 and has a margin of error of 2.5 percent. The party breakdown of poll respondents was 28 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat, 28 percent Independent, and nine percent Other.