Poll: Elizabeth Warren Falling to Pete Buttigieg in Iowa

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is slipping in Iowa, where she has enjoyed status as a frontrunner, to Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D), dropping nine points since October, an Iowa State University/Civiqs poll shows.

The poll, conducted November 15-19, 2019, among 614 likely Democratic caucusgoers, showed Buttigieg firmly leading the pack with 26 percent support – a six-point jump from last month. Warren, who led the field with 28 percent support in last month’s Iowa State University/Civiqs poll, dropped nine points, putting her in second place with 19 percent support.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and former Vice President Joe Biden (D) maintained their third and fourth place positions, with 18 percent support and 12 percent support, respectively.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) saw a slight uptick, coming in fifth place with five percent support. Andrew Yang (D), who saw the least amount of speaking time at Wednesday evening’s Democrat debate, followed with four percent support. The remaining candidates garnered two percent support or less.

The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percent:

“Warren has seen heightened scrutiny this past month, while Buttigieg has received mostly positive attention,” Dave Peterson, the Whitaker Lindgren faculty fellow who organized the poll, stated.

“A little over 60% of the people who supported Warren in October still support her now, and those who switched went to Buttigieg,” he continued.

“What this tells me, is that there is a segment of Iowans backing the candidate getting the most positive coverage,” Peterson added. “If we start seeing more scrutiny of Buttigieg, then his lead might prove to be temporary as well.”

Last month’s results showed Warren leading with 28 percent support, followed by Buttigieg, Sanders, and Biden with 20 percent, 18 percent, and 12 percent, respectively:

Wednesday evening’s debate was significant for Buttigieg, who was among the top in terms of speaking time. However, he faced backlash after suggesting that his sexuality, or being a gay “stranger in my own country,” will help him connect with and build support among black voters.

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) described his comparison as “misdirected” in a post-debate interview with Dana Bash.

“I don’t —I’m never going to engage or allow anyone to engage in comparing struggles,” she said. “I think that is just misdirected.”

She continued:

So we’re going to now say that my pain is worse than your pain? We had 400 years of slavery in this country. We had years of lynching, which involved, black men in particular, being dragged from their homes and hung on a tree, often castrated. We’ve had the years of Jim Crow and institutional racism that included redlining and systemic racism that lingers today. And then, you know, we also have our LGBTQ brothers and sisters who still, under the law, do not have full equality. These are all injustices, but to start comparing one group’s pain to the other is misguided, and I think that anyone who wants to actually build the coalition around the country and bring people together should not be in the position of saying that one group’s pain is equal to or less than or greater than another’s.