Poll: Josh Hawley Takes Lead Over Claire McCaskill After She Announces Opposition to Kavanaugh

A new poll released by The Missouri Scout on Saturday shows that Republican challenger Josh Hawley has taken a two point lead over Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) in the Missouri Senate race just days after she announced she will be voting against the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

Hawley leads McCaskill by a margin of 48 percent to 46 percent in the poll conducted by Missouri Scout over two days, from Wednesday, September 26 to Thursday, September 27.

McCaskill announced her opposition to Kavanaugh on September 19. The second day of the poll was conducted on the same day Judge Kavanaugh and Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, who has accused him of attempting to sexually assault her 36 years ago at a time and place she cannot recall and with no corroborating witnesses or evidence, testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

The poll of 1,555 likely voters in Missouri has a 2.5 percent margin of error.

Significantly, the poll found that 49 percent of likely voters said the Supreme Court confirmation process for Brett Kavanaugh has made them less likely to vote for McCaskill, while only 42 percent said it made them more likely to vote for her.

The overall seven point deficit for McCaskill on this important question helps explain why Hawley has jumped into a two point lead. Even though the results are barely within the 2.5 percent margin of error, they are different than three national polls conducted earlier in September, all of which showed the race tied.

The crosstabs of the responses to the confirmation process by demographics and party affiliation contains more bad news for McCaskill.

Among female respondents, 47 percent said the confirmation process made them less likely to vote for McCaskill, while 42 percent said it made them more likely.

Among male respondents, 50 percent said the confirmation process made them less likely to vote for McCaskill, while 41 percent said it made them more likely.

Among Non-Partisan respondents, 46 percent said the confirmation process made them less likely to vote for McCaskill, while 39 percent said it made them more likely.

Among Republican respondents, 85 percent said the confirmation process made them less likely to vote for McCaskill, while 8 percent said it made them more likely.

Among Democrat respondents, 82 percent said the confirmation process made them more likely to vote for McCaskill, while 8 percent said it made them less likely.

Forty-one percent of poll respondents were Republican, 36 percent were Democrats, and 23 percent were Non-Partisan.

Fifty-three percent of poll respondents were female and 47 percent were male.

Eighty-seven percent were White, Nine percent were African-American, and four percent were Other.

The Missouri Scout Poll results suggests that the momentum of the race may be swinging against McCaskill and towards Hawley, and her decision to oppose the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh is the reason for that change.