Study: Divorce Rate Plummets as Millennials Marry Older

Analysis of divorce rate data during the last decade finds that millennials who are more selective about their marriage partners and are marrying older are driving a plummeting U.S. divorce rate.

The U.S. divorce rate has fallen 18 percent from 2008 to 2016, according to data analysis by researcher Philip N. Cohen of the University of Maryland at College Park.

“Marriage is become more selective, and more stable, even as attitudes toward divorce are becoming more permissive, and cohabitation has grown less stable,” Cohen wrote. “The U.S. is progressing toward a system in which marriage is rarer, and more stable, than it was in the past, representing an increasingly central component of the structure of social inequality.”

Using data from the American Community Survey, Cohen found the trend toward declining U.S. divorce rates has been largely driven by younger women, even though higher rates of divorce are seen among older women than in previous years.

According to the analysis, younger couples are delaying marriage until completion of education and even after their careers and financial plans are established.

“The predictors of divorce are as expected, with increased age, marital duration, fewer marriages, foreign-born status, more education, and White or Hispanic identity all being associated with lower odds of divorce,” Cohen wrote.

Regarding Cohen’s results, Bloomberg reports Bowling Green State University (BGSU) sociology Prof. Susan Brown, who said, “The change among young people is particularly striking.” She added, “The characteristics of young married couples today signal a sustained decline [in divorce rates] in the coming years.”

Baby boomers, however, have continued to divorce at high rates – well into their 60s and 70s – a trend Cohen refers to as “gray divorce.”

“Among those aged 55-64, the risk of divorce nearly doubled (5 to 11 per 1,000),” BGSU’s National Center for Family Research found. “The rate of divorce tripled (2 to 6 per 1,000) among men and women aged 65 and older.”

“[B]ecause divorce rates have continued to fall for younger women, and because the risk profile for newly married couples has shifted toward more protective characteristics (such as higher education, older ages, and lower rates of higher-order marriages), it appears certain that – barring unforeseen changes – divorce rates will further decline in the coming years,” Cohen concluded.