The number of seats currently held by the GOP that Republicans must win in November to maintain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives has jumped by two to 65, a consequence of a major anti-Trump media onslaught during the past month.
The two House races that have been added to the Republican must-win category are Rep. Steve King (R-IA-04) in Iowa’s Fourth Congressional District, and Alaska’s At-Large Rep. Don Young (R-AK).
Both races are rated by Breitbart News as “Looking Good” for the Republicans.
On August 13, Democrats had a 3.9 percent generic ballot advantage, according to the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls. On September 12, that generic ballot has increased to 8.2 points.
In July, Breitbart News rated the number at 61 must-win GOP-held seats, as well as 3 must-flip Democrat-held seats (PA-14, MN-01, and MN-08).
After the indictment of Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) by the Department of Justice (DOJ), that number jumped to 62 on August 11.
Following the DOJ’s indictment of Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA), that number jumped higher to 63 on August 28.
Adding the three must-flip Democrat-held seats to the current list of 65 must-win GOP-held House seats, the number of competitive House seats Republicans must win to maintain the majority in the House of Representatives is now 68.
The mainstream media attacks on President Trump have been ferocious, over-the-top, and relentless during the past month:
- New York Times published an “anonymous” op-ed, which they claim was written by a Trump White House staffer.
- Washington Post editor Bob Woodward claimed President Trump is a danger to national security to promote his recently published book on the Trump administration.
- CNN’s nonstop reporting on the “nothing-burger” Russian collusion allegations and the never-ending Mueller investigation
- The mainstream media’s breathless reporting on theatrics by out-of-control Democrats at the Senate Judiciary confirmation hearings for SCOTUS nominee Brett Kavanaugh
In addition, social media giants Google, Facebook, and Twitter have been accused of using their technology to prop up left-wing attacks, as Breitbart News reported in these stories:
- The stunning video leaked to Breitbart News on Wednesday of Google executives plotting resistance to the Trump administration just days after President Trump’s 2016 election
- Reports that Google used its technology to push Latinos to vote for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election
- Facebook’s change in its sharing algorithms that has throttled sharing by conservative websites
- Twitter’s banning of conservative users, including a Benghazi hero who criticized President Obama (banned temporarily) and Alex Jones of InfoWars (banned permanently)
The polling results during this period have been odd as well–bimodal, if you will. Of the 7 polls included in the current Real Clear Politics Average of polls, 3 are in the 2 percent to 4 percent range, while 4 are in the 9 percent to 14 percent range.
The Cook Political Report currently rates 105 House races as competitive.
Breitbart News currently lists 96 competitive House races in the 2018 midterm elections, nine fewer than the Cook Political Report. The difference in the two ratings comes in the twelve races Cook rates as “Lean Democrat” but still competitive. Breitbart News rates only 3 of those races as “competitive,” MN-7, PA-06, and NJ-02.
Sixty-eight of these competitive House seats are must-wins for Republicans, while 28 are could-wins.
There are two changes in the Breitbart News House race ratings since the last ratings were announced on August 28:
- The Democrat-held open seat in New Hampshire’s First Congressional District has been upgraded for Republicans from could-win “Needs a Big Push” to could-win “Hanging in the Balance” after Tuesday’s GOP primary victory by Trump-endorsed former police chief Eddie Edwards.
- Two GOP-held seats, Alaska’s At-Large seat (Young) and Iowa’s 4th Congressional District (King), have been added as competitive House races.
The 68 House seats Republicans must win to maintain a one-vote majority in the House of Representatives are:
29 MUST-WIN GOP-held seats are “Looking Good”
36 MUST-WIN GOP-held seats are “Hanging in the Balance”
1 MUST-FLIP Democrat-held seat is “Looking Good”
2 MUST-FLIP Democrat-held seats are “Hanging in the Balance”
The 28 House seats Republicans could win and increase their majority in the House of Representatives if they run the table:
1 COULD-FLIP Democrat-held seat is “Hanging in the Balance”
24 COULD-WIN GOP-held seats are “Needing a Big Push”
3 COULD-FLIP Democrat-held seats are “Needing a Big Push”
Here is the district-by-district breakdown of these 96 competitive races:
MUST WIN GOP-held seats rated “Looking Good” (29):
AK-AL Young
AZ-06 Schweikert
CA-04 McClintock
CA-21 Valadao
CA-50 Hunter
CO-03 Tipton
FL-06 Open
FL-25 Diaz-Balart
GA-07 Woodall
IA-04-King
IN-02 Walorski
MI-01 Bergman
MI-06 Upton
MI-07 Walberg
MO-02 Wagner
NC-02 Holding
NC-08 Hudson
NY-01 Zeldin
NY-11 Donovan
NY-24 Katko
NY-27 Chris Collins/Open
OH-10 Turner
OH-14 Joyce
PA-10 Perry
SC-01 Open
TX-02 Open
TX-21 Open
TX-31 Carter
WI-06 Grothman
MUST WIN GOP-held seats rated “Hanging in the Balance” (36):
AR-02 Hill
CA-45 Walters
CA-48 Rohrbacher
CO-06 Coffman
FL-15 Open
FL-16 Buchanan
FL-18 Mast
FL-26 Curbelo
GA-06 Handel
IL-13 Davis
IL-14 Hultgren
MI-08 Bishop
MT-00 Gianforte
MN-02 Lewis
MN-03 Paulsen
NC-09 Open
NC-13 Budd
NE-02 Bacon
NJ-03 MacArthur
NM-02 Open
NY-22 Tenney
OH-01 Chabot
OH-12 Balderson
PA-01 Fitzpatrick
PA-16 Kelly
TX-07 Culberson
TX-23 Hurd
TX-32 Sessions
UT-04 Love
VA-02 Taylor
VA-05 Open
VA-07 Brat
WA-03 Herrera Beutler
WA-05 McMorris Rodgers
WI-01 Open
WV-03 Open
MUST FLIP Democrat-held seats rated “Looking Good” (1):
PA-14 Open
MUST FLIP Democrat-held seats rated “Hanging in the Balance” (2):
MN-1 Open
MN-8 Open
COULD FLIP Democrat-held seats rated “Hanging in the Balance” (1):
NH-01 Open
COULD WIN Republican-held seats rated “Needing a Big Push” (24):
AZ-02 Open
CA-10 Denham
CA-25 Knight
CA-39 Open
CA-49 Open
FL-27 Open
IA-01 Blum
IA-03 Young
IL-06 Roskam
IL-12 Bost
KS-02 Open
KS-03 Yoder
KY-06 Barr
ME-02 Poliquin
MI-11 Open
NJ-02 Open
NJ-07 Lance
NJ-11 Open
NY-19 Faso
PA-06 Open
PA-07 Vacant
PA-17 Rothfus
VA-10 Comstock
WA-08 Open
COULD FLIP Democrat-held seats rated “Needing a Big Push” (3):
NH-02 Kuster
NV-03 Open
MN-07 Petersen