Election Eve Poll in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District: Republican Handel Leads by 2

Republican Karen Handel leads Democrat Jon Ossoff by two points in the final poll of Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District special election released by the Trafalgar Group late Monday afternoon.

Polling places open less than 24 hours from now for the June 20 runoff to replace Rep. Tom Price (R-GA), now the Secretary of Health and Human Services.

The survey of 1,100 respondents has a margin of error of 2.9 percent, and was conducted over two days between June 17th (Saturday) and June 18th (Sunday).

“This 6th District survey breaks down the voter’s preference in the 2017 special election runoff. The Trafalgar Group (TFG), recognized for having the best polling in the 2016 battleground states and Electoral College projection, conducted the poll from June 17th through June 18th,” according to the polling firm’s release:

The voters were asked their preferred candidate in the Congressional District 6 race. The results were:

50.46% Handel
48.59% Ossoff
0.95% Undecided

The Trafalgar Group noted that “[t]he results for those who claimed to have already voted “early” are as follows: 51.32% Ossoff, 48.68% Handel.”

“The Handel momentum we saw last week continues and has been intensified as Handel consolidates Republican leaning voters,” Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group said of the latest poll. He went on to say:

There is no doubt in my mind that the shooting at the GOP Congressional Baseball practice has had an impact, but I don’t see that it is the impact that most pundits expect. This tragedy and the attempt to place the blame on right-wing rhetoric has actually served to motivate frustrated Republicans who were considering sitting the election out or voting for Ossoff.

The shift we see toward Handel in the closing days of this race is a bit of GOP homecoming. These disenchanted Republicans are beginning to put their concerns aside and see this election as a choice–a choice between the Party and leaders they’re disappointed in and a Democrat Party and leaders that trouble them even more.

Two polls released on Friday by Fox5/Opinion Savvy and WSB/Landmark Communications showed the race in a statistical tie. Ossoff had a 1.7 percent lead in the  WSB/Landmark Communications poll and less than one percent lead in the Fox5/Opinion Savvy poll.

Since the margin of error for the Trafalgar Group poll released on Monday is 2.9 percent, the two percent Handel advantage is also within the margin of error.

The Trafalgar Group is primarily used by Republican candidates. It has a strong recent track record, as it notes in its release:

The Trafalgar Group is widely recognized as the best polling firm of the 2016 election cycle, correctly forecasting the results in key battleground and other states (PA, FL, NC, MI, OH, CO, GA) and exactly predicting the Trump electoral college margin of victory (306-232). The results and information of their polls have been featured in thousands of U.S. and global news stories, television networks, and high-profile polling web sites like Real Clear Politics.

You can see the full results of the Trafalgar Group poll here.