SALAMANCA, New York –Donald Trump is canceling his planned trip to California this week to focus on the critical April 19 New York primary, but his campaign has yet to announce his schedule of New York campaign events.
One place he’s apparently not going to visit, sources say is New York’s economically-challenged Southern Tier. A light blanket of newly-fallen snow covers the ground, but it doesn’t appear that Donald-Trump plans to see it.
For example, the 23rd Congressional District stretches across most of the Southern Tier. It reaches from Jamestown in the far southwestern corner of the state to Salamanca here in Cattaruagus County. It also includes Elmira and Ithaca in the south-central part of the state.
Rep. Tom Reed, who endorsed Trump in March, represents the district.
Trump does plan to visit Buffalo on April 17, two days before the primary, and local Trump supporters are enthusiastic.
“Western New Yorkers will have an opportunity to hear first hand from a Chief Executive, not a Chief Politician on how to bring back our jobs from China and make America great again. I am proud to welcome Donald Trump to Buffalo in what will be the largest rally of any candidate in New York, and look forward to a huge victory on primary day,” Rep. Chris Collins, who endorsed Trump in February, tells Breitbart News in an exclusive statement about that planned rally.
Earlier this month Collins was named as one of two Congressional liaisons for the Trump campaign. The area isn’t as much of a stronghold for the candidate as the rest of the state.
A recent poll by Monmouth University shows that, while Trump leads statewide with 52 percent of the vote, he is weakest in Western New York, where he only has 48 percent support. In the rest of upstate his support is 52 percent, while in New York City and Long Island it is 58 percent:
Currently, 52% of likely Republican primary voters in New York support Trump compared to 25% who support John Kasich and 17% who will vote for Ted Cruz. Trump has more than half the vote in New York City and Long Island (58%) and Upstate New York (52%), and nearly half in Western New York (47%). Kasich does slightly better upstate (28%) and west (26%) than he does in NYC/LI (22%). Cruz does slightly better in the west (21%) than he does upstate (15%) and in NYC/LI (14%).
Monmouth University Poll executive director Patrick Murray tells Breitbart News that the poll is organized not by counties, but by Congressional Districts. That’s an important measurement, because of the 95 delegates up for grabs in the Empire State, only 14 will be allocated statewide. The remaining 81 will be allocated three per district in each of the state’s 27 Congressional Districts.
At both the statewide and Congressional District level, it’s winner-take-all delegates, provided the winner wins more than 50 percent of the vote. Should the winner take less than 50 percent of the vote, delegates are allocated among all candidates obtaining more than
“We organized New York in three regions based on Congressional Districts. Congressional Districts 1 through 16 are the New York City-Long Island region. Congressional Districs 17 through 22 are upstate New York. Congressional Districts 23 through 27 are Western New York,” Murray tells Breitbart News.
Though Trump leads statewide with 52 percent, followed by Kasich with 25 percent and Cruz with 17 percent, according to the Monmouth Poll, both men do better against Trump in Western New York.
There, Trump has 48 percent, Kasich has 26 percent, and Cruz has 21 percent.
The five Congressional districts in the Western New York region cover areas that were once manufacturing powerhouses but are long past their glory days, and are continuing their downward slides:
CD 23- Southern tier (Jamestown to Elmira to Ithaca)
CD 24 – Syracuse and suburbs
CD 25 – Rochester and suburbs
CD 26 – Buffalo
CD 27 – Buffalo suburbs and east
In order to win 90 of New York’s 95 delegates, as several Trump supporters say he will, the New York billionaire would have to win more than 50 percent of the vote statewide and in each of 22 of the state’s 27 Congressional Districts.
That’s a tall order. Breitbart currently projects Trump will win 75 out of 95 delegates up for grabs.
But should Trump drop below 50 percent statewide and in all five Congressional Districts in Western New York, and perhaps several others in New York City, Trump’s delegate total could plunge to the 50 or 60 level.
Trump appears to be popular in Western New York, but has yet to close the deal with many likely GOP voters who like him.
One resident of the Southern Tier’s Cattaraugus County tells Breitbart News he’s looking forward to going to the Trump rally 50 miles away in Buffalo on April 17. “I like Trump. He’s an outsider. He’s not one of those Washington good ol’ boys with his hand out. That other guy, Kasich, he’s kind of quiet but he seems to be coming on with some good ideas as well.”
Carl Paladino, the wealthy real estate developer from Buffalo and failed gubernatorial candidate who endorsed Trump in February, told Fox News that “the majority of our [Trump’s] strength is [in Long Island and upstate].”
“The people [of New York] have had this festering anger of being taxed to death,” he added.
A Trump spokesperson responded to a Breitbart News inquiry about the candidate’s schedule between now and April 19. “We have several major events planned, all over the state and look forward to sharing details soon,” the spokesperson said in an emailed response.
In the first two full days since his loss to Ted Cruz in Wisconsin, Trump held only one public event in New York. In contrast, rival Ted Cruz has held four events over the same two day period: one in the upstate New York community of Scotia, two in Brooklyn, and one in the Bronx.
As of Friday morning, eleven days from the opening of the primary polls in New York, no events are currently listed on the schedule at the Donald Trump campaign website.
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