A new Field Poll released Thursday shows that Donald Trump leads among likely Republican primary voters in California–although Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, and Marco Rubio are within the margin of error. Trump has 17%, Carson 15%, Fiorina 13%, and Rubio 10%. The margin of error is 7%, owing to the poll’s small sample size (214).
Poll director Mark DiCamillo noted in a press release that three outsiders–Trump, Carson, and Fiorina–are leading the pack: “The poll shows that support for the three ‘political outsider’ candidates is greater among the strongly conservative wing of the Republican Party and among voters identifying with the Tea Party,” he concluded.
Only 28% of voters surveyed say that they expect Trump to win the nomination, and four in ten say that they would be “upset or dissatisfied” if he emerged as the Republican Party nominee for the presidency next year.
The results are “dramatically” different from earlier polls, DiCamillo notes: “One of the leaders in the earlier Field Polls, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, has since dropped his bid for the presidency, while support for another of the early leaders, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, has been steadily declining since the start of the year.”
Among the current leaders, Fiorina–a California local–has staged the most dramatic rise, from zero to her current position.