Regardless of what pollster say about Senator Ted Cruz’s chances of winning the 2016 GOP presidential nomination, the ugly truth for those who think they know how to forecast elections, is that the American electorate has changed since the resurgence of the Tea Party movement in 2009, and it is a much more educated group that has proven to buck conventional wisdom.
Take for instance Florida’s historic Rubio vs. Crist Senate race in 2010.
All of these wizards of smart (H/T Rush Limbaugh) said that there was no way that Rubio could beat a popular sitting Florida Governor.
They were wrong; Rubio stepped on Crist’s political neck.
The same thing was said of Ted Cruz, when he challenged establishment Republican Lt. Governor Dewhurst in the 2012 Texas Republican Senate primary race.
Cruz crushed Dewhurst.
Both Rubio and Cruz are very much alike. The only policy difference between the two conservative senators is on immigration reform.
Cruz has not wavered with his position on immigration reform, while Rubio has shot himself in the foot when he flip-flopped on the issue by co-sponsoring and giving a full-throated support for his 2013 “Gang of 8” pro-pathway to citizenship immigration bill.
Rubio has since backpedaled on the mistake, but the seemingly insurmountable damage to his brand has been done.
Rubio has lost a significant portion of the Florida grassroots, who feel betrayed because of his change of position on immigration reform, and will need to mount a herculean effort to regain some of that trust, if he is to make a serious presidential challenge in 2016.
Jeb Bush, on the other hand, supports a full pathway to citizenship of illegal aliens but has recently said that he favors measures to penalize these illegals, even force them to pay fines for breaking U.S. immigration law.
The one issue that could sway this upcoming election is Common Core education standards.
Bush is the Godfather of Common Core and defends it to all ends, including the data-mining of student and family personal records that is intrinsically attached to the education standards.
Both Rubio and Cruz are adamantly opposed to Common Core and have both openly express their opposition to it.
So who will Floridians support for president in 2016?
A recent unscientific poll conducted right here at the Shark Tank shows that the grassroots in Florida overwhelmingly supports Ted Cruz over Bush, Rubio, and the rest of the potential field of presidential candidates.