Up Next: Housing Prices, Consumer Confidence and GDP

Today, the Conference Board releases critical consumer confidence data for July. Economists expect it to hold near steady at 81-the June reading was 81.4.

Wall Street follows consumer confidence closely because it drives stock prices, but the auto sector and economists pay attention because it motivates new car showroom traffic. Along with new home construction, which drives pickup truck sales, consumer confidence is a very critical indicator for Midwestern manufacturing.

The S&P Index of May housing prices-the most reliable indicator of recent home prices movements-is expected to show a big year-over-year gain of 12.3 percent, but May prices were pushed by contracts written before the recent surge in mortgage rates.

Tomorrow, Commerce reports second quarter GDP, and that is expected to disappoint. Consumer spending, less cars, has been slowing. Autos compromise 20 percent of the economy, and have been driven mostly by replacement of vehicles worn out during the financial crisis and truck sales in response to the housing boom.

Rising mortgage rates will dampen truck transactions prices. Also, a weakened yen artificially advantages Japanese imports of cars. All raise concerns about an expected rebound in GDP for the second half-growth will likely be slower than Wall Street economists expect.

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data…

Peter Morici is a professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland School, and a widely published columnist. Follow him on Twitter.